Bloody Shambles Soccer: Predictions

Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts

Friday, May 5, 2017

ShambleMetrics: Betting Picks and Preview (W7 2017)

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 6: 2-1-0 (OVR: 10-6-1 / +8.15 units / +15.00% ROI)

Favorite Lines and ShambleMetrics:

Indy Eleven to win (-125, ★★★★★): This fixture couldn't come at a better time for the win-starved Eleven. FC Edmonton is a team in free fall; their identity as a physical defensive powerhouse all but gone.

Since the departure of Lance Laing following the 2015 season, FCE's goals per game average has fallen from 1.37 (2015), to 0.78 (2016), and now to 0.60 (2017, through five games).

Unfortunately for Colin Miller, the Eddie's saving grace from a season ago (one of the greatest season-long defensive performances in American soccer history) has also evaporated. Despite keeping a majority of their defensive roster intact, Edmonton has already conceded 38% (8 goals) of their entire goals against tally (21) from 2016. Ouch.

Unless Miller convinces Real Salt Lake to loan them Matt Van Oekel, expect Indy's draw streak to stop here.

New York Cosmos Draw No Bet (-160, ★★★★★): New York has yet to look convincing, but the league-leading Armada have yet to best anyone but the hapless Eddies. I'll continue to be skeptical until they do.

It's difficult to imagine the Cosmos leave Jacksonville with anything less than a point.

Carolina Railhawks to win (-105, ★★★★): It's still early, but the Railhawks are showing significant signs of growth in 2017. As the team with the highest road loss percentage a season ago, earning four points from back-to-back road games -- and against quality opposition (Miami and Puerto Rico) -- is a massive step forward.

Flashes of brilliance followed by inexplicable letdowns have been a hallmark of the Colin Clarke era in Carolina, however. Dispatching a talented Deltas squad -- even one which hasn't found the net in over 270 minutes -- would prove NCFC are a title threat. I like their chances.

Predictions:

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

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Saturday, April 22, 2017

ShambleMetrics: Betting Picks and Preview (W5 2017)

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 3: 2-2-0 (OVR: 8-3-1 / +11.73 units / +31.69% ROI)

Favorite Lines and ShambleMetrics:

Miami FC to win (-130, ★★★★★): Finding any kind of consistency continues to be a struggle for Carolina -- showcased once again by being on both sides of a 3-1 result in back-to-back weeks.

No team lost more on the road in 2016 than Carolina (68.75%), and a rested Miami squad should prove too much to handle. We successfully faded NCFC away from home against the Deltas, and we'll do so again here.

New York Cosmos -1 (-115, ★★★★): While I'd love to see Jacksonville's surprising start continue, expect this week to be a harsh reality check. It's tough to fault a team with three clean sheets in as many games, and the Armada defense might even be good enough to keep them off the bottom of the table (though I have my doubts) -- but they offer very little in the final third.

Until they score a goal that isn't gifted to them by the free-falling Eddies, I'll continue to be skeptical.

Predictions:

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Friday, March 31, 2017

ShambleMetrics: Betting Picks and Preview (W2 2017)

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 1: 3-0-1 (W-L-P) / +6.47 units / +53.93% ROI )

Favorite Lines and ShambleMetrics:

Jacksonville Armada vs. FC Edmonton Under 2.5 Goals (-108), ★★★): Few teams in any league have seen a single consistent betting strategy be as profitable as FC Edmonton and the under were in 2016. Led by Golden Glove winner Matt Van Oekel (now starting for Real Salt Lake of MLS), FCE saw an incredible 26 of 32 (81.25%) matches end with two goals or fewer. The percentage grew even higher (87.5%) when away from home.

It's unrealistic to expect this level of defensive dominance (paired with relative offensive ineptitude) again in 2017, but Colin Miller loves a clean sheet. Chris Konopka is a very suitable replacement for Van Oekel at this level (and boasts a similarly-monstrous wingspan), while the central duo of Albert Watson and Pape Diakite will continue to be the bedrock of a team with playoff aspirations.

FC Edmonton Draw No Bet (-110, ★★★★): Shifting to the other side of the story, the Jacksonville Armada are beginning a campaign which many believe -- myself included -- will be a season-long struggle to escape the bottom of the table. Nothing will come easy for the league-owned team moving to a new stadium with a subpar roster (all while wearing sponsorless white t-shirts).

There's no reason to believe the Armada start the season with anything better than a point. FC Edmonton may not have enough to win outright, but I see very little risk in this play.

Miami FC Win/Draw Double Chance (-110, ★★★): Fading the Cosmos for a second week in a row (and this time in New York) is likely playing with fire, but I will continue to believe in the quality of Miami's roster -- several moments of precarious defensive play in their opener notwithstanding.

New York's home record is well known: Gio Savarese has his team riding the longest home unbeaten streak in NASL history. Even so, I have to love this value on a double chance line for a team I believe to have an MLS-caliber midfield, a team I (and many) believe to be the title favorites in 2017, and a team which has a very reliable track record on the road.

Miami's loss percentage in 2016 (37.5%) was bettered only by Rayo OKC.

Indy Eleven vs Puerto Rico FC Draw (+345, ★): Obviously not the result I want in this one, but these picks must go where the value dictates.

This line is blatantly disrespectful to a Puerto Rico side which finished with the 5th-highest draw percentage on the road in 2016 (36.36%), despite being at an obvious disadvantage by starting play midseason. Adrian Whitbread's squad were also in the top-half of the league in road points earned per game (0.91), and won or drew 54.55% of their games away from home (6th in the NASL).

Indy's form at The Mike was otherworldly last season, and there's little reason to believe they'll fall off too drastically in 2017 (though matching perfection may be unrealistic) -- but nobody should be surprised if this match played out very similarly to the Eleven's home opener a year ago.

Predictions:

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Saturday, March 25, 2017

ShambleMetrics: Betting Picks and Preview (Week 1 2017)

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

2016 Results: 70-54-8 OVR / +14.14 units / +4.92% ROI )

Favorite Lines and ShambleMetrics:

Miami FC Draw No Bet (+125, ★★★★). I was burned in the opener last season by picking pre-season hype (Minnesota at the time) over the ~~Railhawks~~ NCFC at Wake Med. Here's to hoping history doesn't repeat itself.

Miami's roster is simply too good to pass on this amount of value in a Draw No Bet line. The additions of Michel (who I believe to be the best offseason signing in the league), Dylan Mares, and Stefano Pinho turned an already solid roster into one which is utterly terrifying. I would even go as far as to say Miami's midfield is better than several in MLS.

No team scored more goals on the road in 2016 than Miami FC (1.38), with Nesta's squad being particularly prolific in the first half (0.75 goals per game, also a league-leading metric). Carolina, conversely, led the league in first-half goals conceded at home (0.56). Miami to score first (line not available at the time of publication) could also be an intriguing play if the value is right.

San Francisco Deltas vs Indy Eleven Under 2.5 (-105, ★★★): Since 2014, six teams have joined the NASL as expansion sides. Only one (Jacksonville) earned all three points in their initial outing. Given this, I also think there's still value to be had in Indy Eleven Win/Draw Double Chance (-160, ★★★). If you're looking for a higher-risk/higher-reward play, it's hard not to like the Draw result at +235.

The Deltas are a team which shouldn't be slept on this season, however. A very talented roster led by a very talented coach (both of which boast a wealth of NASL experience and success) will give the Bay Area plenty to be excited about.

It's no secret the Eleven struggled on the road last season. Hankinson's men -- most of whom have returned in 2017 -- boasted the second-lowest winning percentage away from home (12.5%), as well as the highest road draw percentage (43.75%).

Indy also kept their road games low-scoring: averaging 2.06 combined goals per game. Only Rayo OKC (1.69, may they rest in peace) and FC Edmonton (1.31) had lower average totals. It's also worth noting that Indy's total is even lower if we disregard road results where backup keeper Keith Cardona was given game time (eight total goals in two games).

Puerto Rico FC Win/Draw Double Chance (-115, ★★):

Here's where I go against the 2016 numbers a bit. PRFC's losing percentage at home was the fourth-highest in the NASL last season (27.27%), while the Cosmos tied OKC for the highest road winning percentage (37.5%).

It's important to note, however, that Puerto Rico had a much smaller sample for these metrics due to missing the Spring season. Even more importantly is that they were undefeated at home in their final six games (2W 4D).

Both teams have seen their fair share of roster changes while still keeping a solid core from 2016, and the Cosmos are admittedly known for their fast starts -- but I fully expect Bayamon to be a tough trip for any team in the league this year.

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Saturday, November 5, 2016

The Championship Semifinal: Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Final Week Results: 1-1-0 (68-52-8 OVR / +5.77% ROI / +16.14 units)

Favorite Lines:

Indy Eleven to win (-110, ★★★): Invincible at home. Untouchable in the biggest games. Spurred on by 10,000 of the loudest fans in the NASL.

For more, check out our in-depth preview of the most important match in Indy Eleven history.

Rayo OKC +1 (-150, ★★★★★): Rayo OKC was one of only two teams (FC Edmonton) to earn a point in New York in 2016. They led the league in away points per game (1.44), and had the lowest road losing percentage (31.25%). They also enter this game unbeaten in 10, and ended the season with a positive goal differential against the Cosmos (4-2) -- the only team to do so while playing in New York twice.

This line is simply disrespectful. Almost as disrespectful as PRO assigning the referee who gave OKC three red cards in this fixture earlier in the season.

Predictions:

We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Spring Standings:
Caleb: 124
James: 107
Seth: 107

Fall Standings:
James: 285
Caleb: 276
Brandon: 222*
Seth: 210

2016 Overall Standings:
Caleb: 400
James: 392
Seth: 317
Brandon: 222*

Points per Week:
Brandon: 13.88*
Caleb: 13.79
James: 13.52
Seth: 10.93
*Joined Week 14.

The ShambleMetrics:

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview Show. Don't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook.

James (@bshambles_JC), Seth (@SoccerBits), and Brandon (@Brew_Wallace) can also be found on Twitter.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Week 28 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 27 Results: 2-0-0 (64-51-8 OVR / +3.37% ROI / +8.88 units)

Favorite Lines:

Rayo OKC Draw No Bet (+110, ★★★★): No team in the NASL is better away from home than Rayo OKC, as they lead the league in both road winning percentage (33%), and average points per game (1.33). This Draw No Bet is too generous for a team unbeaten in eight.

Indy Eleven Draw/Win HT/FT Result (+265, ★★): Here's some math for you: In 2016, Indy Eleven has a 46.67% first half draw percentage at home, with a full time winning percentage of 80%. Moreover, in the Fall, Indy has a direct 80% winning percentage in home matches which are tied at halftime.

If we ignore every other potential variable (hundreds of which the ShambleMetrics model actually does take into account), the likelihood of both events occurring (0.4667 * 0.8) is 37.34%.

For comparison, the implied probability of a line at +265 odds is 27.40%. Value.

FC Edmonton vs. Jacksonville Armada Under 2.5 Goals (TBD, ★★★★):This line has not been released at the time of publishing, but I would expect it to fall somewhere in the -130 to -145 range. Regardless, FC Edmonton and Unders have been utterly synonymous in 2016, and I see no reason to jump off the bandwagon at this point.

Predictions:

We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Spring Standings:
James: 124
Caleb: 107
Seth: 107

Fall Standings:
James: 255
Caleb: 239
Brandon: 202*
Seth: 195

2016 Overall Standings:
Caleb: 363
James: 362
Seth: 302
Brandon: 202*

Points per Week:
Brandon: 14.43*
Caleb: 13.44
James: 13.41
Seth: 11.19
*Joined Week 14.

The ShambleMetrics:

Saturday, October 15, 2016

Week 27 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 25 Results: 0-2-0 (64-51-8 OVR / +1.24% ROI / +3.18 units)

Favorite Lines:

Indy Eleven to Win (-125, ★★★★): Expect some squad rotation tonight from Tim Hankinson, but there's value in expecting Indy's home unbeaten streak to continue with a victory. Carolina has the highest road losing percentage (64.29%) in the NASL, while the Eleven boast an incredible 78.57% winning percentage at Michael A. Carroll. Indy will earn three home points once again.

Minnesota United Draw No Bet (-120, ★★★): Each of the last two weeks I've suggested a heavy fade of FC Edmonton, and both times it backfired in spectacular fashion. The Eddies poor offensive performances did finally catch up to them on Wednesday in Fort Lauderdale, however, in a 1-0 loss -- albeit with a heavily rotated squad.

Minnesota's recent form has been utterly atrocious (no wins in their last six), and it certainly wouldn't surprise me if they drop points in this one -- but Colin Miller's side hasn't won on the road in two months, and I have a hard time imagining that this changes today.

It might not seem like it, but I also think there's value in the United win/draw double chance, even at -275.

Predictions:

We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Spring Standings:
James: 124
Caleb: 107
Seth: 107

Fall Standings:
James: 242
Caleb: 229
Brandon: 192*
Seth: 186

2016 Overall Standings:
Caleb: 353
James: 349
Seth: 293
Brandon: 192*

Points per Week:
Brandon: 14.77*
Caleb: 13.58
James: 13.42
Seth: 11.27
*Joined Week 14.

The ShambleMetrics:

Saturday, October 8, 2016

Week 26 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 25 Results: 0-3-0 (64-49-8 OVR / +4.5% ROI / +11.18 units)

Favorite Lines:

Tampa Bay Rowdies Win/Draw Double Chance (-110, ★★★★★): Tampa is unbeaten in their last seven, a stretch which included three road games (FTL, PRFC, IND). Despite late-game heroics (read: a complete mental meltdown by Indy Eleven) earning Edmonton their first win in eight matches, I see no reason to believe they will do the same to Tampa Bay. The value in this line is outrageous.

Miami FC to win (-135, ★★★): In their last seven matches away from home, Rayo OKC have averaged 0.43 points per game (second lowest in the NASL), with a 57.14% loss percentage. Miami is the better team, in better form, and this should show in the result.

Predictions:

We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Spring Standings:
James: 124
Caleb: 107
Seth: 107

Fall Standings:
James: 231
Caleb: 209
Brandon: 186*
Seth: 175

2016 Overall Standings:
James: 338
Caleb: 333
Seth: 282
Brandon: 186*

Points per Week:
Brandon: 15.50*
James: 13.52
Caleb: 13.32
Seth: 11.28

*Joined Week 14.