Bloody Shambles Soccer: Tampa Bay Rowdies

Showing posts with label Tampa Bay Rowdies. Show all posts

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Routing the Rowdies 2-0 - Indy Eleven V Tampa Bay Rowdies REVIEW

Forward Elliott Collier, who recently arrived in Indy on loan from the Chicago Fire, celebrates his first goal for Indy Eleven as team captain Matt Watson rushes in to help celebrate. Photo by Trevor Rruszkowski

Hump Day Happiness In The Circle City

By REBECCA TOWNSEND (aka The Pitch Bitch)

Looking for redemption for the 3-1 loss suffered during their July 21 visit to Tampa Bay, Indy Eleven met the Rowdies at Lucas Oil Stadium Wednesday night with a lineup designed for defensive impenetrability while maximizing the host's capacity to spread the field and counterattack.

Focus and intensity ensured Indy Eleven eluded some of the gremlins that have cost the team victories in games past. The Boys in Blue made it through the opening minutes of the game — and the opening minutes of the second half — without being scored on. And those successes stuck, allowing the Eleven to claim victory — and for keeper Owain Fôn Williams to record his 11th clean sheet of the season. (Head coach Martin Rennie believes Fôn Williams either tied or set the club clean sheet record with the evening's result.)

Fôn Williams is tied for seventh in the entire USL for number of saved goals at 77 (including two blocked penalty kicks). (The Tulsa Roughnecks FC's Fabián Cerda leads with 104.)

Indy's defense was entirely no-nonsense straight from the start. Reiner Ferreira sent Junior Flemmings crumbling to the carpet on a couple occasions in the game's opening minutes. Captain Ayoze showed commanding control of his flank and the rest of the back line, in lock-step and interchangeable flow with the midfield and even the forwards, all followed suit by putting immediate and effective pressure on Tampa's possession, absorbing everything they could bring and then redistributing for the counterattack from all directions of the field.

"Patient passing; low, accurate switching of fields...still more, patiently unzipping their backline," Pitch Bitch game notes read. "Maybe now test with some shots."

That may be the Bitch's greatest input at this point: Let's be even more confident in the attacking third. Let's test the hell out of our opposing keepers and D with some wicked hard shots from all around the 18 perimeters! And then crash the box! Keep their defense frantic! The clinical un-stitching with close-range destruction is also beautiful to behold. Have fun finding balance. Keep bringing your highly fit relentless intensity.

Carlyle Mitchell gets credit for so much, but to choose a highlight: Picture him in the first half, flying backward through the air for a floating heading clearance of a ball that was going to drop over every other defender and land about 10 yards out from Indy's goal with a swarm of Rowdies rushing in to finish? Nice.

Midfielders Nico Matern, Seth Moses and Dylan Mares all came out hard, defending like animals and then building consistent and effective counterattacks. Matern, in particular, was called out by coach Rennie after the game for having one of his best-ever matches.

Matern's play "was a key factor in us improving our possession and keeping the ball going," Rennie said.

Tampa Bay's play of the game came in the 26th minute when Rowdies forward Sebastian Guenzatti took a wicked one-touch volley from the top of the box, forcing lightening fast reflexes from Fôn Williams, who just managed to the tip the ball off the post and out of harm's way.

"Great shot! Great save!" says commentator Brad Hauter, also the coach of DePauw Men's Soccer.

Ten minutes later Indy defender Kevin Venegas cracks a shot of his own, forcing Tampa keeper Daniel Vega into a diving save to tip the ball over the crossbar.

The defense continued its offensive onslaught of first-half fury when Karl Ouimette bagged his third goal of the season, which also happened to be his third header into goal from an Ayoze corner kick.

How did it feel?

"Amazing!" Ouimette said following the game, calling Indy Eleven's 2-0 victory over the Rowdies "a big step up from past games."

The game's positive results were clear, he said, especially from the perspective of a defender whose first objective is to win and second is to record a shutout.

"We scored a goal and we didn't sit back too much," he said, "We defended well
throughout the game. We were able to dominate and put up pressure and impose our style of play. That was a big plus for us today. And, obviously, scoring on a personal side is always good!"

The team has "amazing players..such nice guys and we have each others' backs," he added. "Lots of teams have internal negativity. Not here. We want to help each other succeed."

Ouimette attended a post-game press conference with one of the team's most recent signings, Elliott Collier, who came to the Circle City on loan from Chicago Fire. Collier scored the night's second goal after beautiful teamwork set up Jack McInerney to tangle Tampa's defenders and leave a deflected ball rolling straight into Collier's path at which point the New Zealand native buried left-footed, one-touch shot.

Tense moments about 10 minutes into the second half when an errant call from officials left Tampa Bay setting up for an undeserved penalty kick, which if netted would have tied the score. The center official intervened, however, and reset the play where with a drop ball instead. Thereby a riot was prevented. Thank you refs!

Perspective on Potential Post-season Action

The team's playoff dreams are still in play. They currently sit at 5th place in the USL's Eastern Conference. The top eight teams from each conference will square off to see who will face the best of the Western Conference and claim the USL's 2018 Championship.

Three games remain, including two road games against teams that sit at the first and third spots on the table. This upcoming Saturday's (Sept. 29) road trip to FC Cincinnati presents a huge challenge and opportunity. Cincy has invested in a roster that will help them make the transition into the MLS next season. As a result, they've remained the Eastern Conference leader all season long — and they've beat Indy twice; a 0-1 defeat for Indy's first-ever home game played at Lucas Oil Stadium, followed by a 2-3 result in Indy one month later.

USL Eastern Conference Standings as of Sept. 27, 2018

The challenge lies in beating a team that has consistently dominated all competition. The opportunity lies in knowing that Indy improved its form from the first game to the second against Cincy. Plus, Indy Eleven has been improving as a unit all season and FC Cincinnati hasn't contended with them since early May.

The prospect of tearing down the top dog is too tasty, especially on its home field. Huge egos are designed by God to rupture. The Eleven just may end up doing the Lord's work by checking their neighbor to the southeast with a healthy dose of revenge. How fun would it be to send those guys packing to the MLS with a 2-2 record against Indy? A regular season victory this weekend would give Indy one and then they can follow with an even sweeter playoff victory!

A prescient piece of Scripture comes to mind: "Jesus looked at them and said, 'With man this is impossible, but with God all things are possible.'" (Matthew 19:26)

So when haters try to talk "odds" or "reason" or "logic" or "MLS caliber" ... just remember Jesus — and the Blues Brothers. ("We're on a mission from God.") And keep playing your flippin' hearts out! We take no result as a fore-drawn conclusion.

Jimmy Cliff also comes to mind: "The harder they come, the harder they fall."

Humbling the haughty and earning some payback for letting those jokers come over here and steal Indy's first home game victory — all while building confidence as the team prepares for winning playoff form? Sounds like solid motivation for Saturday's match.

"I feel we'll reward the fans with the way we play," Collier said. "You get the fans behind you, you can shake the other team, as well. So come on out and we'll have a good time!"

Cincinnati and Louisville will be a preview of the playoffs, Collier said.

"Everyone is going to go at it," he said. "Those environments can be tough but we're going to go out and do what we can (in terms of perfecting the Indy system)... As good as the players are here, I think they're even better people. Bring a bunch of really good soccer players and really good people together, you'll have a good environment to build off."

Words of wisdom from Coach Rennie

Here are some tasty nuggets gleaned from Rennie's post-game comments.

"Good performance. We possessed the ball well and created some good chances.
We managed to win the ball higher up pressure on the ball reduce the chances the opponent had to attack us."

"In the last two home games, two of our best performances."

"We've been on a good run. It's a good time to be playing well, it's a good time to be gaining confidence and that puts us in a good position."

(Heading into Cincinnati:) "We have high-quality players who can get the job done for us. We have a short turnaround but ultimately it will be an exciting weekend for us."

"It's really about continuing the momentum ... we're looking for improved confidence."

"The game will take care of itself ... a lot on the line ... good players with good experience...I'm sure they'll relish the opportunity and make the most of it."

Moving forward

Supporters are encouraged to travel to Cincinnati (ticket info) this weekend and to Louisville where the team will play its final regular-season game on Oct. 13. The Brickyard Battalion is organizing carpools for Cincy here: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdsh6da2VlW67jjKj2KpeM0GsHPOqk9zZZfaBNOqgrn2vIQJQ/viewform.

The final regular-season home game is set for Sat., Oct. 6 against Bethlehem Steel FC. (The game will be broadcast on MyIndy 23 TV. Tell your local bartender to tune in!) Kickoff is 7 p.m.

Fee-free tickets are available for purchase through the Brickyard Battalion supporters club at BYBtix.com. The team has plenty of good deals, as well, at IndyEleven.com.

— — —

Thanks to the Indy Eleven communication team for this lineup summary:

Scoring Summary:

IND – Karl Ouimette (Ayoze) 37’
IND – Elliot Collier 75’

Disciplinary Summary:

IND – Owain Fon Williams (Yellow card) 74’

Indy Eleven lineup (4-4-2, L-->R): Owain Fon Williams (GK); Reiner Ferreira, Ayoze (C), Carlyle Mitchell, Karl Ouimette; Dylan Mares (Matt Watson 68’), Nico Matern, Seth Moses, Kevin Venegas; Elliot Collier (Soony Saad 84’), Jack McInerney

Indy Eleven bench: Ben Lundgaard (GK); Brad Ring, Brad Rusin, Matt Watson, Juan Guerra, Ben Speas, Soony Saad

Tampa Bay Rowdies lineup (4-5-1, L-->R): Daniel Vega (GK); Papé Diakité, Zac Portillos, Tarek Morad, Hunter Gorskie; Junior Flemmings, Lance Rozeboom (Joe Cole 78’), Afrim Taku (Alex Morrell 72’), Dominic Oduro, Kwadwo Poku (Jaime Chavez 65’); Sebastian Guenzatti

Tampa Bay Rowdies bench: Akira Fitzgerald (GK); Kyle Porter, Alex Morrell, Leo Fernandes, Martin Vingaard, Joe Cole, Jaime Chavez

Saturday, November 19, 2016

As Close As It Gets - Indy Eleven 2016 REVIEW

Peter Wilt enjoys the fruits of all his labors after Indy Eleven become 2016 Spring Champions.

By: James Cormack

The season is over, the final minutes have passed, after a long weekend in New York it is time to reflect on what has been an incredible year as an Indy Eleven supporter. Immediate reactions would have been worthless and irrational, it's important after a long year to sleep on it a little and garner a true appreciation and gratitude for what has been a truly amazing season for this team.

With regards to the 2016 NASL Soccer Bowl itself, all I can think of is "shooting fish in a barrel," which is basically what it came down to. Nobody likes penalty shootouts, but it is a necessary means to an end, whoever shoots the most fish wins. I often liken the same situation to a sideshow or carnival attraction... "STEP RIGHT UP!" hit the targets and win a stuffed animal. Only in this situation you're physically drained, you're nerves are shot and all the pressures of the world are on your shoulders and several hundred opposition fans are screaming at you.

There is no blame to be apportioned to any player or coach, we had ample opportunities to knock our opponent out an we didn't. A final was played, decisions were made, those decisions did not lose us the game, we gave it everything but we did not succeed, the Cosmos scored more penalties than us and deservedly lifted the Championship trophy.

Am I disappointed? Well of course it would have been nice to win, but I cannot possibly be disappointed with this team, with these players and our coaching staff. The have pulled off miracles all year long and transformed Indy Eleven into a team that is now respected and possibly feared in the league in which they play.

Indy Eleven have completed their third season as a club. In 2014 we finished 9th from 10 teams in the combined standings with 27pts and only 6 wins in the year, in 2015 we finished 9th of 11 teams with 33pts and 8 wins for the entire year. This year in 2016 we finished 2nd in combined standings with 15 wins and 55pts. We won more games in one year than we did in our first two seasons and were only 5pts short of equaling the amount we gained in our first two years as a team. THAT is incredible!

2016 NASL Spring Champions
2016 NASL Championship Runners Up
2016 NASL Coach of the Year - Tim Hankinson
2016 Goal of the Year - Duke Lacroix
2016 Undefeated at Home in NASL and US Open Cup Matches

Defining moments.....

Tim Hankinson proved to be a worthy hire for Indy Eleven picking up NASL Coach of The Year award.

On December 2, 2015, Tim Hankinson was named as the new head coach of Indy Eleven. There had been rumors in the weeks leading up to this about who may be the new coach, such as former Fort Lauderdale Strikers coach Gunter Kronsteiner. When Hankinson's name appeared on the radar it sent everyone, including myself, scrambling through the internet trying to figure out who we had hired.

Little did we know then, and I am sure many including myself questioned the appointment, but it was a defining moment. My immediate reaction was that the only way I could support and approve of this hire would be if we retained the services of Tim Regan. For me at that moment in time, before even thinking about players, was that it would be our most pivotal signing announcement, and that is exactly what happened.

On the same evening we all had our first chance to meet Tim Hankinson at Indianapolis City Market. I attended with my usual skepticism and an ear willing to listen and was then pleasantly surprised. I was worried and apprehensive about the coming season but coach Hankinson was very approachable and took time to talk to all of us. By the end of the evening I left knowing we had hired a knowledgeable man, we had hired experience, ambition and someone with a specific plan to make the club a "more" successful one. Words are words though, and despite feeling much more comfortable after listening I was still skeptical but excited.

Assistant Coach Tim Regan's experience of the team made him critical part of the 2016 setup.

Preseason, as we know from watching any sport, is never going to be in any way defining of how a team will perform when the real games commence. I remember, however, in the very first scrimmage against IU in Bloomington when Don Smart picked out a perfect pass to the far post in that game and I saw the movement of Éamon Zayed to drift away from his defender and pick out the header and score, I knew that we had signed an intelligent and experienced forward. Zayed had scored the type of goal that was elusive to us in previous years.

When the season kicked off proper in Tampa, we definitely looked like a team short of preparation; we did not look ready and I feared a walloping in the first game. We somehow scraped through it and pulled out a point, probably very disappointing to the Rowdies who arguably had better preparation than ourselves and were heavily favored for big things in 2016.

Hankinson's 4-2-3-1 formation initially proved difficult to breakdown, but it also lacked punch. This trend continued into a 1-1 draw in our first home game against Ottawa Fury, in which we had to come back from behind, one week before facing our nemesis and ultimately our final opponent, the New York Cosmos. In that draw against Ottawa we saw the first glimpse of the warrior spirit, which Tim Hankinson had eluded to before the season, in Nemanja Vukovic who stepped up with a last minute equalizer to avoid defeat in our home opener.

April 16 was huge day for Indy Eleven. Neither Indy nor the Cosmos had ever beaten each other having played out six draws in previous matches. The Cosmos were going to be the team to beat this season and the luck of the draw put them in Indianapolis twice. Hankinson had thrown his initial plans out of the window and moved to a 4-4-2 formation. Indy Eleven went a goal down but came back to win 2-1 thanks to a 95th minute goal from Éamon Zayed. That was the point where we began to sense something special was going to happen this year.

The change of formation and the result of this match sparked a new direction and belief in the team that would see them remain undefeated for the remainder of spring, culminating in a final match scenario where they had the opportunity to steal the spring championship from the hands of the New York Cosmos.

Another sign that Hankinson had built a squad of players who had chemistry and togetherness came in the 2016 US Open Cup. Indy Eleven had never beaten Louisville City FC and being knocked out of the cup by them in the previous year was a huge blow to the supporters at the time.

In preseason Indy Eleven again lost to Louisville just as they had done in 2015. This season's cup match may not have been seen as a highly important game, but it was, especially for the supporters. A victory also offered an opportunity to play MLS opposition in the following round.

Indy Eleven avoided another early Open Cup exit at the hands of Louisville City FC

Indy's first 2016 cup game and chance for revenge came on June 1 in Indianapolis. Indy were still undefeated since the beginning of the season but had several injury concerns; the team that would line up against LCFC was as close as you could get to a reserve side. It was a concern as Louisville were an improving side and in great form at the time. Those concerns were realized when Louisville took the lead in the 21st minute.

Indy struggled in the game until Justin Braun came on shortly before the half and Éamon Zayed appeared after half time. The pair's quality and work rate shone through and Indy Eleven came back as they did against New York earlier in the spring and won the game 2-1, setting up a tie against Chicago Fire in the next round.

Prior to meeting MLS opposition in a competitive match for the first time since 2014, there was a small matter of wrapping up the spring season. Ten days after securing advancement in the Open Cup, Indy Eleven faced a home game against Carolina Railhawks that could decide the Spring Championship. Prior to kick off Indy had the unenviable task of firstly winning to draw level on points with the Cosmos and then also score four goals and win by a margin of three to stop New York from winning through tiebreakers.

The match against Carolina Railhawks on June 11 was arguably the greatest game of the year. After taking a lead in the 16th minute through Éamon Zayed the stadium was silenced with a half hour played when Nazmi Albadawi put home the equalizer for Carolina. Indy had to score three more goals and conceding another probably would have been disastrous.

In first half added time Justin Braun scored a vital goal to put the team into the break a goal up. Zayed would score two further goals to claim his hat trick, the match ball and seal a 4-1 victory and the spring championship trophy for the Eleven. The memory of that game will live forever as it booked our passage to the post season and also sent a clear message to every other team that the Eleven will never roll over and lay down.

3-1 and smoke still drifting, Indy push for a fourth against Carolina to claim the Spring Championship.

With the spring season behind them Indy Eleven moved on to face Chicago Fire in the US Open Cup. Indy stood toe to toe with Chicago in the match and pushed them all the way to penalty kicks. The Fire won that shootout but again our team could not be faulted for their play and effort. In a conversation with Justin Braun this past week about favorite games, Braun said he felt that was one of their best performances all year.

Shortly before the game Indy Eleven caused a social media frenzy by announcing the signing of Mexican international and former Cruz Azul player Gerardo Torrado. Torrado was not eligible to play in the US Open Cup game but was available to appear in Indy Eleven's next game against Liga MX Champions CF Pachuca.

It was the second year Indy Eleven had faced Mexican opposition in a summer friendly, having played Monarcas Morelia in 2015. Pachuca brought and fielded a very strong team. Indy Eleven rose to the occasion and again Éamon Zayed scored the goal that made the difference in a very tight match. Within a short space of time Indy had won their first silverware, made post season, pushed MLS opposition to the wire and defeated a league champion. We were not even half way through the season and it was already the best season to date.

Having reached the playoffs by virtue of a spring championship win, Indy still had incentive to try and win the fall season, thereby ensuring a home game in the league final and of course at the beginning of Spring we had an undefeated league record to protect. That ended on the 16th of July when we lost to Minnesota United 2-0. Despite the loss on the road, Indy would continue to defend an undefeated at home record and push for a fall championship win.

Joe Cole and company were no match for Indy in 2016, Indy Eleven took 5 points from The Rowdies.

One match that was defining or pivotal to that chase was the match against Tampa Bay Rowdies on the 3rd of September at Carroll Stadium. It was an important game for both teams; Tampa Bay had put themselves in a position where they pretty much had to win in order to make the playoffs, while Indy Eleven returned home from a punishing road schedule, taking only one point from matches against Carolina, Ottawa and New York.

Anything less than a win for Indy probably meant winning the fall season was out of their reach. Anything less than a win for Tampa would shut the door on them for a playoff spot. With a weeks rest that they badly needed, the Eleven drew the match 1-1 thanks to a 64th minute goal from Brad Ring. We were not going to be champions of fall, but this result was critical to protecting our home undefeated record, and a loss at home in that game could have been devastating to the psyche of the team.

After that game the Eleven only conceded one more goal at home in five games. That lone goal came in the very next game against Miami FC, who at the time were the hottest team in the league and pushing hard for a playoff spot. We destroyed their playoff dreams as well, winning 2-1, before going on to keep four consecutive clean sheets, beating Carolina, New York and Puerto Rico all by 3-0 results, before dispatching Edmonton by a goal to nil in The Championship semifinal.

The rest is fresh in our minds. Outside of the team that hoisted the Soccer Bowl above their heads on the Sunday evening of November 13, the Indy Eleven had played more minutes in NASL competition than any of the other teams. Their place in the final was deserved and they proved it throughout the year. In regular play we were arguably the best team of the competition but the final accolade eluded us and we have no reason to be bitter or disappointed. We began life in 2014 but 2016 is the year everyone came to know our name, and it will also be the year we talk of in stories for years to come.

Belson Stadium during the 2016 NASL Soccer Bowl Final.

Let's be thankful and move on...

It goes without saying, and we have said it before, that there are not enough superlatives to describe Peter Wilt, nor are there enough to describe the depth of our gratitude to him. For anyone who has come in contact with Peter you already know that he is the ultimate supporter, the most passionate fan, the first to cry in victory or defeat and often the last person we see when leaving a game, because he is always there for those who care.

It was a fitting tribute to Peter Wilt that Indy Eleven won the spring championship and made the post season in only their third year of existence. Peter is driven by success and that is all he wanted for this city and this team; he achieved it and not easily, as Indy Eleven learned a lot in their first two seasons. We learned from out mistakes, we adapted and made changes and decisions were made that were no doubt very difficult. Even without this year to look back on, in my mind Peter Wilt was already successful, having established something this city badly needed and giving us something to fall madly in love with.

Despite not being champions the foundations of something pretty special have been set, our coaching staff and our roster have gained valuable exerience about what is required to win this league in 2016 and the opportunity is there to regroup, move forward and improve upon our efforts from this year in 2017.

As we saw last year it will be a nervous wait to see which players are retained and which ones are not. The more successful teams in the league such as the Cosmos and Minnesota have maintained consistency in their play by keeping as much of their squad together as they can each year. Hopefully Indy Eleven will do the same, there is a very special chemistry in this squad and keeping as much of that as possible will be critical to a successful league campaign in 2017.

Thank you to all of the players, the staff and all supporters of Indy Eleven for making 2016 a very special year, it's been pretty amazing. Stay excited, and get ready for next season, it's going to be another great ride!

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We'll be keeping you up to date will all the news over the post season from Indy Eleven, NASL and NPSL as well as articles and interviews regarding Indiana Soccer and US Soccer in general. Our podcast the Bloody Shambles Soccer Show is returning very soon. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook and at our website Bloodyshambles.com.

Saturday, October 8, 2016

Week 26 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 25 Results: 0-3-0 (64-49-8 OVR / +4.5% ROI / +11.18 units)

Favorite Lines:

Tampa Bay Rowdies Win/Draw Double Chance (-110, ★★★★★): Tampa is unbeaten in their last seven, a stretch which included three road games (FTL, PRFC, IND). Despite late-game heroics (read: a complete mental meltdown by Indy Eleven) earning Edmonton their first win in eight matches, I see no reason to believe they will do the same to Tampa Bay. The value in this line is outrageous.

Miami FC to win (-135, ★★★): In their last seven matches away from home, Rayo OKC have averaged 0.43 points per game (second lowest in the NASL), with a 57.14% loss percentage. Miami is the better team, in better form, and this should show in the result.

Predictions:

We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Spring Standings:
James: 124
Caleb: 107
Seth: 107

Fall Standings:
James: 231
Caleb: 209
Brandon: 186*
Seth: 175

2016 Overall Standings:
James: 338
Caleb: 333
Seth: 282
Brandon: 186*

Points per Week:
Brandon: 15.50*
James: 13.52
Caleb: 13.32
Seth: 11.28

*Joined Week 14.

The ShambleMetrics:

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview Show. Don't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook.

James (@bshambles_JC), Seth (@SoccerBits), and Brandon (@Brew_Wallace) can also be found on Twitter.

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Final NASL Table Predictions

Who will join Indy Eleven in the NASL's The Championship playoffs?

By: Brandon Cockrum

The final month of the season has arrived and NASL clubs have between five and seven matches remaining. As a weekend warrior statistician, I thought it would be fun to try to project some of the final standings using the performance of the clubs so far this season. For those of you that invest in the stock market (or those that plan to in the future), you should be familiar with the phrase, “Past performance is NOT necessarily an indicator of future results.” However, since we’re not investing our hard earned cash into this, we’re totally going to use past performance as an indicator of future results.

As the winners of the Spring championship Indy has secured one playoff spot as well as the right to host a semifinal playoff game. The majority of table questions remain:

Which club will win the Fall season and the right to host the other semifinal playoff?
Which club will win the Combined season?
Which clubs will make the playoffs and what will the semifinal seeds and matchups be?

To arrive at the results I put together a formula that used three different Points Per Game (PPG) figures to estimate the number of points that would be earned in a club's remaining games:

Fifty percent of the estimated final points were pulled from Fall season home and away matches, the PPG from each were multiplied by the number of home or away games remaining for a club.
Twenty-five percent of the estimated final points were pulled from a club’s combined season PPG.
Twenty-five percent of the estimated final points were pulled from a club’s PPG over their last five games.

Finally, I didn’t include all twelve clubs in the predicted standings. There’s really only eight of them that have a real shot at the playoffs (and, even more realistically, five of them are competing for one spot.) I’ve also included the standings for only the top four likely finishers in the Fall table. (Lastly, if you want predicted points for each and every team or feel that my formula is woefully inaccurate, feel free to do your own damn formulas.)

And now, your predicted final table results:

Fall Season Winner: New York Cosmos

Combined Season Winner: New York Cosmos
Semifinal Matchups: 1) New York Cosmos (H) vs 4) Miami FC and 2) Indy Eleven (H) vs 3) FC Edmonton

If the table predictions are accurate, New York is just two points away from having enough points to win both the Fall and the combined seasons. After posting a last-place finish (11th) in the Spring campaign, Miami’s player acquisitions will propel them way up the table and into a second place Fall finish. This performance looks to be good enough to edge out Minnesota by two and equal Tampa Bay in combined season points, with Miami FC winning the fourth and final seed via a tie-breaker on Goal Differential or Goals Scored. Indy and Edmonton finish second and third in the predicted, final combined season table.

Do you have any predictions for how the Fall and combined tables will shake out? Think these results are whack? Share your thoughts on Twitter with Brandon (@brew_wallace) and Bloody Shambles (@bloody_shambles).

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Week 23 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 22 Results: 2-1-0 (62-42-8 OVR / +11.42% ROI / +25.52 units)

Favorite Lines:

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Carolina Railhawks First Half Draw (+115, ★★★): The ShambleMetrics are giving this one a 57.69% chance of hitting, and for good reason. When it comes to First Half Draw % at home, no team with as large of a sample size can compete with the Rowdies (72.73%). Three of Carolina's last four matches have been level at half as well.

Puerto Rico FC vs. Jacksonville Armada Under 2.5 Goals (-150, ★★★): Puerto Rico hasn't scored in four, while Jacksonville boasts the second-worst Away Goals For metric in the league (0.62). I also love the value in Puerto Rico FC vs. Jacksonville Armada HT/FT Result: Draw / Draw (+315, ★). In the fall season, these two teams have combined for two wins in 27 matches.

Fort Lauderdale Strikers Win/Draw Double Chance (-155, ★★★): Fort Lauderdale has quietly put together a six-game unbeaten streak, including games against Indy Eleven (win), the New York Cosmos (Draw) and Minnesota United (Draw). The Strikers also have the third-highest average point total on the road in 2016 (1.18), and are only behind Miami FC (1.42) and FC Edmonton (1.30) in that particular metric.

Finally, it's worth noting that Rayo OKC is tied for the third-lowest home winning percentage in the league at 33%. It's a bargain to get this line at these odds.

Predictions:

We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Spring Standings:
James: 124
Caleb: 107
Seth: 107

Fall Standings:
James: 187
Caleb: 165
Brandon: 144*
Seth: 134

2016 Overall Standings:
James: 294
Caleb: 289
Seth: 241
Brandon: 144*

Points per Week:
Brandon: 16.00*
James: 13.36
Caleb: 13.14
Seth: 10.95

*Joined Week 14.

The ShambleMetrics:

Saturday, September 10, 2016

Week 22 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 21 Results: 1-1-0 (60-41-8 OVR / +11.23% ROI / +24.09 units)

Favorite Lines:

Indy Eleven vs Fort Lauderdale Strikers First Half Draw (+110, ★★★): Indy's historical trouble in the state of Florida are well documented -- as are their struggles on the road in 2016. The Strikers aren't without issues of their own, however. Expect this one to be tight early.

Puerto Rico FC vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies Under 2.5 goals (-115, ★★★): Puerto Rico has scored one goal in their last four matches, while six of Tampa Bay's last eight matches have finished under the 2.5 mark. Trust the ShambleMetrics here.

Miami FC Win/Draw Double Chance (-165, ★★★): Edmonton hasn't lost at home in league play since April 10th, winning nine straight before finally playing to a scoreless draw against PRFC a week ago.

That being said: Miami's sprint up the fall table isn't slowing down yet. Nobody in the league has had a better stretch of results on the road than Nesta's men are currently enjoying. Ride them while they're hot.

If you're up for a little more risk, take the Draw result at +230. Miami might not have enough to beat the Eddies at home, but I also don't see them losing.

Predictions:

We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Spring Standings:
James: 124
Caleb: 107
Seth: 107

Fall Standings:
James: 172
Caleb: 151
Brandon: 134*
Seth: 123

2016 Overall Standings:
Caleb: 275
James: 279
Seth: 230
Brandon: 134*

Points per Week:
Brandon: 16.75*
Caleb: 13.10
James: 13.29
Seth: 10.95

*Joined Week 14.