Saturday, October 1, 2016

Week 25 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines


Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 24 Results: 1-1-0 (63-45-8 OVR / +8.43% ROI / +20.18 units)


Favorite Lines:


Minnesota United -1 (+100, )This matchup couldn't come at a better time for Minnesota. The Loons have lost three straight, and are in real danger of being overtaken in for the final playoff spot by both Tampa Bay and Miami (with Carolina and Fort Lauderdale not far behind). 

Jacksonville are winless in seven (2L 5D), and are only behind the Railhawks in road loss percentage in 2016 (64.29%). If United are to make the playoffs, they have to win this game. Expect them to come out strong and ultimately win by more than one goal.

Indy Eleven Win/Draw Double Chance (-135, ): FC Edmonton are in their worst form of the season. They haven't found the net in over five matches (478 total minutes), and are winless in their last seven matches. Indy's road struggles are well documented (only one victory away from home in 2016, and a less-than-stellar 0.75 average points per game), but it's impossible not to like the value in this line. They might not win, but I would be shocked if they lose.

Ottawa Fury vs. Puerto Rico FC Draw (+225, ): Ottawa has drawn five of their last eight matches, and PRFC five of their last nine. Trust the ShambleMetrics (predicting a 52.75% chance of a draw), and play the value in this one.


Predictions:



We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Spring Standings:
James: 124
Caleb: 107
Seth: 107

Fall Standings:
James: 219
Caleb: 200
Brandon: 167*
Seth: 163

2016 Overall Standings:
James: 326
Caleb: 324
Seth: 270
Brandon: 167*

Points per Week:
Brandon: 15.18*
James: 13.58
Caleb: 13.50
Seth: 11.25

*Joined Week 14.


The ShambleMetrics:


 
 
 
 




Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.


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James (@bshambles_JC), Seth (@SoccerBits), and Brandon (@Brew_Wallace) can also be found on Twitter.

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