Saturday, October 8, 2016

Week 26 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 25 Results: 0-3-0 (64-49-8 OVR / +4.5% ROI / +11.18 units)

Favorite Lines:

Tampa Bay Rowdies Win/Draw Double Chance (-110, ): Tampa is unbeaten in their last seven, a stretch which included three road games (FTL, PRFC, IND). Despite late-game heroics (read: a complete mental meltdown by Indy Eleven) earning Edmonton their first win in eight matches, I see no reason to believe they will do the same to Tampa Bay. The value in this line is outrageous. 

Miami FC to win (-135, )In their last seven matches away from home, Rayo OKC have averaged 0.43 points per game (second lowest in the NASL), with a 57.14% loss percentage. Miami is the better team, in better form, and this should show in the result.


We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Spring Standings:
James: 124
Caleb: 107
Seth: 107

Fall Standings:
James: 231
Caleb: 209
Brandon: 186*
Seth: 175

2016 Overall Standings:
James: 338
Caleb: 333
Seth: 282
Brandon: 186*

Points per Week:
Brandon: 15.50*
James: 13.52
Caleb: 13.32
Seth: 11.28

*Joined Week 14.

The ShambleMetrics:

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview ShowDon't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook

James (@bshambles_JC), Seth (@SoccerBits), and Brandon (@Brew_Wallace) can also be found on Twitter.

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