Friday, May 5, 2017

ShambleMetrics: Betting Picks and Preview (W7 2017)

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 6: 2-1-0 (OVR: 10-6-1 / +8.15 units / +15.00% ROI)

Favorite Lines and ShambleMetrics:

Indy Eleven to win (-125, ): This fixture couldn't come at a better time for the win-starved Eleven. FC Edmonton is a team in free fall; their identity as a physical defensive powerhouse all but gone. 

Since the departure of Lance Laing following the 2015 season, FCE's goals per game average has fallen from 1.37 (2015), to 0.78 (2016), and now to 0.60 (2017, through five games). 

Unfortunately for Colin Miller, the Eddie's saving grace from a season ago (one of the greatest season-long defensive performances in American soccer history) has also evaporated. Despite keeping a majority of their defensive roster intact, Edmonton has already conceded 38% (8 goals) of their entire goals against tally (21) from 2016. Ouch. 

Unless Miller convinces Real Salt Lake to loan them Matt Van Oekel, expect Indy's draw streak to stop here.

New York Cosmos Draw No Bet (-160, ): New York has yet to look convincing, but the league-leading Armada have yet to best anyone but the hapless Eddies. I'll continue to be skeptical until they do.

It's difficult to imagine the Cosmos leave Jacksonville with anything less than a point.

Carolina Railhawks to win (-105, ): It's still early, but the Railhawks are showing significant signs of growth in 2017. As the team with the highest road loss percentage a season ago, earning four points from back-to-back road games -- and against quality opposition (Miami and Puerto Rico) -- is a massive step forward.

Flashes of brilliance followed by inexplicable letdowns have been a hallmark of the Colin Clarke era in Carolina, however. Dispatching a talented Deltas squad -- even one which hasn't found the net in over 270 minutes -- would prove NCFC are a title threat. I like their chances.


We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Current Standings:
Brian: 51
Caleb: 50
Jordan: 35
James: 29
Brandon: 27
Mark: 24

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

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