Saturday, November 5, 2016

The Championship Semifinal: Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Final Week Results: 1-1-0 (68-52-8 OVR / +5.77% ROI / +16.14 units)

Favorite Lines:

Indy Eleven to win (-110, ): Invincible at home. Untouchable in the biggest games. Spurred on by 10,000 of the loudest fans in the NASL. 

For more, check out our in-depth preview of the most important match in Indy Eleven history.

Rayo OKC +1 (-150, ): Rayo OKC was one of only two teams (FC Edmonton) to earn a point in New York in 2016. They led the league in away points per game (1.44), and had the lowest road losing percentage (31.25%). They also enter this game unbeaten in 10, and ended the season with a positive goal differential against the Cosmos (4-2) -- the only team to do so while playing in New York twice.

This line is simply disrespectful. Almost as disrespectful as PRO assigning the referee who gave OKC three red cards in this fixture earlier in the season.


We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Spring Standings:
Caleb: 124
James: 107
Seth: 107

Fall Standings:
James: 285
Caleb: 276
Brandon: 222*
Seth: 210

2016 Overall Standings:
Caleb: 400
James: 392
Seth: 317
Brandon: 222*

Points per Week:
Brandon: 13.88*
Caleb: 13.79
James: 13.52
Seth: 10.93
*Joined Week 14.

The ShambleMetrics:

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview ShowDon't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook

James (@bshambles_JC), Seth (@SoccerBits), and Brandon (@Brew_Wallace) can also be found on Twitter.

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