Timony Snicket's: A Series of Unfortunate Soccer Events

“I suppose I'll have to add the force of Miami to my list of enemies.” 

By Brian Cook

Speechless. I think that might be the closest way to describe how the 2017 season has gone for Indiana's team. Whether it be good or bad the results have not been what the club nor the fans had expected going into the season after a runner-up NASL title season in the year 2016.

Harder than watching the results of this season is trying to pin point where exactly the problem lie and on whose shoulders do they rest on. Clearly the on the field results rest squarely on the head coach, the leaders of the team (Falvey, Busch, etc) and on rest of the players in that order. On the field Indy Eleven are stuck in the shadow of last season's results. It seems that while Hankinson has stressed to both the players and fans that you have to earn what you get from this team that the club has failed to adapt and grow on their performance from last year.

I always recall seeing the massive change in the club when it moved from the very staggered 4-2-3-1 formation that clearly wasn't working to the 4-4-2 that this was the new Indy Eleven. A club that has been destined for greatness and more importantly has been able to see the issues and fix them 

The argument now rests on whether or not it's fair to hit the panic button on the season and the correct answer is yes and no

“Never trust anyone who has not brought a winger with them.”

It is fair to panic. Miami FC is clearly the strongest and most well built team in NASL for a number of reasons. But even against a Cosmos team that was built in a similar fashion of building a team outside the general scope of how NASL clubs are built Indy Eleven found a chance to win. The team this season remains largely intact from the 2016 campaign and fans are expecting better from a club that put up four goals on the last day of the Spring Season to win the Spring Championship.

It also isn't fair to panic. The general understanding (when looking at the table) is that with another win or two the club would literally be back into the pile at the top half of the table. With the restructuring of the schedule for the 2017 season the Spring season is far less than a sprint and much more of a jog unlike previous years. The injury bug also plays a huge part into the performance this year. Indy Eleven has been far from healthy and their strongest first eleven really hasn't gotten the chance to hit the field year.


There are also plenty of distractions and issues on and off the field outside of the general scope of how the season has gone.

On the field:

Eamon Zayed: 

One of the largest question marks since the beginning of the season has been the on again off again place of Eamon Zayed in the starting lineup of Indy Eleven. It's safe to say the biggest change seen in the team in 2017 was the first game of the season not having Eamon Zayed in the starting eleven. Nothing was ever officially confirmed about the reasoning behind this move though there was plenty of speculation. Nevertheless the holder of the team's scoring record hasn't gotten off to the best start so far and one only wonders if the beginning of the season plays into that. 

Ben Speas 

There is a moment in the movie MoneyBall (with Brad Pitt) where Billy Beane realizes you can't replace a player directly but rather replace their results they give you. What he was talking about was the struggle that the Oakland Athletics (on a much lower pay wage than most of MLB) would have in replacing the bats of Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon and the arm of pitcher Jason Isringhasen. The three of them had brought tremendous amounts of success for Oakland Athletics the season before the infamous Moneyball season and were huge losses for the A's. 

“It is one of life's bitterest truths that endtime so often arrives just when things are really getting interesting.” 

Cue the analogy, Ben Speas for all intents and purpose was dog eared to be the replacement for an outgoing Dylan Mares who moved onto the sunny beaches of Miami FC. Ben Speas, who last season averaged four goals and four assists against Mares five goals and seven assists as a member of the Boys in Blue was tailor made to come and fit the role Indy would be lacking which was a wing based playmaker and for the most part he truly hasn't failed at that.

He's just struggled to keep up the pace and I think Speas' performance shows more about how you wouldn't be able to play the same system as last season and use Speas the way you used Mares. Speas skill set allows you borderline more attacking presence than Mares did but Mares skillset was much more at hand with what Indy had on the field last season. 

Centerbacks 

When it was announced that Colin Falvey would be out for a portion of the beginning of the season due to surgery I think everyone gasped. . Colin Falvey and Jon Busch's work in the backline last season was all but key in the overall success of 2017. Losing Colin Falvey not only lost a great defender but a great leader and with no Cory Miller you were left with a versatile Daniel Keller and someone new to Indy Eleven, Kwame Watson-Siriboe.

In a previous blog, the positive impact of Colin Falvey's presence was discussed so it was no secret why it was vital he get back on the field as soon as possible. Early into the season with Falvey it was clear the defense needed another leader besides Jon Busch. Keller, who has been with the club for two years, has played nearly every position in the backline has the ability but not the leadership at least not what's been seen. 

Truthfully I'm still waiting for the moment where we understand what Hankinson saw in signing Kwame Watson-Siriboe because up until now he's been a loose cannon in the backline leaving huge gaps and causing more issues for the defense than preventing them. Even Falvey's return to his leadership role hasn't curbed Kwame from running up and playing a stopper role and leaving Falvey alone to stop an attack. 

While the return of Falvey clearly had a difference in how the backline work and rotated but even with Falvey's return the Indy Eleven defense is nothing compared to how strong the defense was in 2016. 

Coach Hankinson

It's pretty safe to say that the honeymoon phase is over. Last season was amazing but it's pretty clear that last season's successes rest right there. Last season. I'm not entirely sure what the plan was for this season but whatever it is it's not working. Between the roster building leaving huge holes in the structure of the team and decisions involving benching Eamon Zayed have left a lot of people, quietly, questioning what's going on in the mind of Indy Eleven's head coach. 

Some of this is on the field, some of this is general team cohesion but nevertheless it shouldn't a question. Speaking on the US Open Cup match against the Michigan Bucks, which removing the faces and names is an amatuer side that Indy Eleven should have at least beaten if not been comfortable in the victory even with squad rotation.

“Well-defended people are less likely to be evil.” 

It's not even to say that Hankinson is the problem. Clearly people need a direction to point and it's easier to point at the head coach than anyone else. There is a fair argument given last season's successes that Hankinson is definitely performing below expectations. His choices in the lineup, both at the beginning of the season to now, have left some questions out there.

Injuries have also played a huge part. Indy Eleven isn't the youngest team in the league by all means and as a result they have gotten ripped apart for lack of a better word by the injury bug and have struggled to maintain consistent performances. 

Off the field

The off the field troubles are pretty clear. A lack of a stadium, a lack of good results, losing good players, weather. All things that have impacted what every sport's team struggles with and lower division soccer in America is no different. 

The bottom line.

In an interview about the infamous Stadium for Indiana deal Ersal Ozdemir pulled no punches when he said:

“Without a new stadium, we have some serious decisions to make,” he said.

-Source

The stadium, which was reproposed for a fourth time, is an healthy 100 million dollar plus deal which would have Ersal and his 'ownership group' paying the fee for getting an expansion club and other expenses while resting the bill for the stadium on a 'public - private partnership' which would have the city and state pick up most of the tab. (At this moment we haven't reached out to the club on a comment for this quote)

The public movement of the bill (or lack there of) has weighed heavily on the shoulders of staff and players. What does it say when the owner of a team eludes to the possibility it could be the last year for his club and thus the last year for a lot of people to work for the club? Whether it was a tactic to help motivate those who have the ability to get financing for the stadium or just Ersal making his everyday stresses public the statement has hurt the club, players, staff, as well as the fans.

Whatever the case may be. This club is in the thick of it. Since the beginning of the season it's been like watching a roster collectively grab shovels and slowly dig a hole down. While they are working together in that regard it's hard for players to be motivated to win games, it's hard for staff to hear that the club is struggling financially and above all else it's difficult for casual fans who base their decision of attending games off of the performance of the team to feel inclined to come watch Indy struggle. We hope that this is just a rough patch on the road and things eventually turn around for a team that should clearly be performing better than it is. 

Picked Apart: Indy Eleven vs Miami FC REVIEW (5/20/2017)

Frustration was the theme of the night when Indy Eleven faced league leaders Miami FC.

By Brandon Cockrum

Entering Saturday’s match head coach Tim Hankinson described the Eleven’s meeting last weekend as "being ripped apart" by Miami. This week the Eleven lined up with three defensive midfielders in an attempt to stymy a Miami attack that Hankinson said goes right down the middle of the park. The result: rather than being torn apart, Miami cooly picked Indy apart, taking advantage of two defensive errors from the Eleven to claim a 2-0 victory. The loss humbly ends Indy’s NASL record 21-game unbeaten streak at home.

The Eleven lined up with a full-strength back four, however Kwame Watson-Siriboe paired with Colin Falvey at center back to allow Lovel Palmer to shift forward into a central defensive midfield role next to Brad Ring. Gerardo Torrado was deployed in front of them, creating a defensive cone in the center of the pitch to deflect Miami attacks away from Indy’s core.

Ben Speas and rookie Tanner Thompson were split wide of Torrado as attacking midfielders with Justin Braun as a lone striker. Clearly, with just three true offense-oriented players, defense would be a priority for Indy and the strategy would be to manufacture a goal through heart and hustle rather than a refined attack.

For 25 minutes Indy held on with just a few breaks in their defensive shield and seemed to be gaining their footing. Jon Busch was forced to make a nice save from a corner kick header in the 10th minute and a Miami attacker shanked a shot high from seven yards out in the 16th minute.

In the 27th minute Indy looked poised to manufacture the game’s first goal as Justin Braun, after tackling the ball from Miami defender Rhett Bernstein, went one-on-one against goalkeeper Daniel Vega. But, Vega was up to the challenge and stopped Braun’s attempted flick dribble around him.

A rapid Miami counter after Vega's stop of Braun was halted by an Indy foul near the top of the penalty box. While Indy dropped their heads or turned their attention to the referee Miami quickly restarted play. Robert Kcira made a simple pass to Vincenzo Rennella waiting on Busch’s doorstep and the experienced striker calmly finished the play.

In a matter of one minute, Indy went from looking like they had the game’s first goal to being down 1-0 and staring up a large mountain with inadequate climbing gear.

The first half concluded with Miami content and Indy unable to create and possibly the only highlight after the goal being an animated discussion during a stoppage in play between Ring, Falvey, Marco Franco and Hankinson.

Defender Marco Franco looks to spark an Indy attack.

The second half continued similarly with Miami probing and testing the Indy defensive but not causing much trouble and Indy struggling to build anything resembling a threatening offense. Possession was frequently lost by the boys in pinstripes in the midfield through poor passing or lack of control. Only once in the game did the Eleven manage a shot from their opponents penalty box.

In the 72nd minute another defensive error from Indy provided Miami with another clear opportunity on goal. Away from the play, a slow moving Watson-Siriboe kept Miami’s Kwame Poku onside and allowed Michael Lahoud to play a through ball that beat Poku’s defender and put the attacker in on goal where he calmly beat Busch with a shot.

2-0, with Miami in front and not looking over their shoulder,

The sport’s most dangerous lead was never threatened as Indy continued to struggle creating offense. Mild urgency at the end was easily dealt with by the visitors as they saw the game out and claimed their league leading 17th point of the season.

Four Takeaways

Mares eagerly waits to take the field in Indianapolis.

Mares Thriving in Miami

It's bittersweet to see, but Dylan Mares has been a key cog for the league's top team. The plucky attacking midfielder has 2 goals, 1 assist and is a league leader in chances created. The Eleven would have liked to have kept the homegrown product but higher wages, sandy beaches and youthful ambition drew him to Miami. While highly respected, it might have taken a move away for Mares' quality to be fully appreciated by everyone in Indy.

M.I.A.

The Eleven offense, currently missing in action, has now gone four matches without scoring a legitimate goal. Sure, they registered two goals last week in Miami but one was an own goal and one was due to a miscommunication between a defender and goalie on a ball that both had covered, a figurative gift from Miami for a clearly surprised goalscorer, Braun.

Among eight NASL teams, the Eleven are fifth in shots take and seventh in shot accuracy. So, they're not getting many shots off and those they do get are poorly taken.

A healthy Eamon Zayed and Don Smart should help the club find it’s lost attack but neither was even available for action on Saturday. It may be a few weeks (or more) before both return to full form and, even when they do, can we confidently say this team is poised for takeoff? More importantly, what do we do until then?

Roster Makeup

There has been pressure on coach Hankinson due to the poor results but he has lately been forced to put lipstick on a pig. A coach can only do so much with the ingredients he is given. Injuries should have been expected with a roster that is the league’s oldest club, however after the top 14 or so players there was a distinct drop-off in skill and experience. 

Now that injuries and poor form have hit the coach has few options to try. Two goalies are often part of our seven available subs on match day. Rookies David Goldsmith and Thompson have been required to play a lot of minutes, but this is a league that is very difficult for professional rookies to make an impact. Three in-season acquisitions have been feckless, to the point that none of them sniffed the pitch against Miami. On Saturday Daniel Keller was brought in late in the game with Indy needing to find goals. Last season, Nicki Paterson, Sinisa Ubiparipovic or other strong options were available off the bench for Hankinson. (Nothing against Keller but his skills are best utilized keeping the ball out of the net rather than putting it in.)

The club currently sits in sixth place (out of 8), well behind the top five. If club owner Ersal Ozdemir wants things to turn around it seems that he'll have to open up the checkbook for a key summer signing (or two).

Downward Spiral

The club’s poor results - six draws and three losses leave the club as the only pro team in the US without a victory - are now threatening the status of players and coaches. 

"If the downward spiral continues there will be changes, whether that’s coaching staff or players,” Hankinson told Greg Rakestraw on "Soccer Saturday" the morning of this match. 

With another poor result later that evening it seems that someone will be held accountable by the next match - the question is who and will it have a positive effect?

Indy Taste First Defeat in Miami: Miami FC v Indy Eleven REVIEW (5/13/2017)

Bizarre confusion surrounds the end of the game after only three of four stoppage minutes are played.

By: James Cormack

It wouldn't be a 2017 Indy Eleven game if we did not have some kind of new injury before the start. No sign of Eamon Zayed in the starting lineup or on the bench, contact in the previous match against Edmonton triggered a back injury, Craig Henderson also missing with possible hamstring. No immediate return to the starting lineup for Marco Franco either but he did make the bench along with the return of Don Smart and Ben Speas.

Indy's Starting XI

Indy Eleven lined up for the start with Jon Busch in goal, Lovel Palmer, Kwame Watson-Siriboe, Colin Falvey and Daniel Keller across the back, Brandon Poltronieri, Gerardo Torrado, Tanner Thompson and Jason Plumhoff in midfield and David Goldsmith partnered Justin Braun up front in the absence of Zayed.

Miami FC had an injury of their own with Stefano Pinho missing, replaced by Jaime Chávez. Michael Lahoud was also unavailable for the home side.

Miami FC lined up with Vega, Bernstein, Freeman, Kcira, Trafford, Mares, Rezende, Ryan, Chávez, Poku and Renella.

Three Indy Eleven players made their starting debut, David Goldsmith, Brandon Poltronieri and Jason Plumhoff. Unfamiliar lineups are nothing new for Indy Eleven this year but in this match probably only 5 of the players on the field when the whistle blew would be considered part of a preferred starting eleven.

Indy prove mildly successful at damage limitation.....

Okay maybe that's a bit harsh. It could pretty much be guaranteed from the onset of this game that Miami FC were going to throw everything and several kitchen sinks at Indy Eleven from the onset. 

Barely a minute had passed in the game when Jon Busch was called upon to make a great save when Enzo Rennella unleashed a shot from outside Indy Eleven's box. Moments later Miami FC worked into a position to pass the ball across the face of goal leaving Busch stranded but Miami's attack couldn't arrive fast enough to push the ball into goal.

This was a pattern that would ensue for almost the entire first half, Miami FC working themselves into great positions and creating opportunities but failing on the final ball. Indy Eleven had to play spoiler and weather the storm for as long as they could. The first good look for Indy came in the 24th minute when David Goldsmith made room for himself to shoot from the center of the box and forced a fine fingertip save from Daniel Vega.




Miami FC continued to miss clear cut chances in the final third and as the half wore on and Miami appeared to be slowing down it looked like Indy Eleven would be able to go into half time still level. At this point in the game it is fair to say has Miami been more clinical in front of goal it could easily be 3-0 already.

Then a hammer blow was dealt in stoppage time of the first half. In the 46th minute of the game Enzo Rennella who had threatened the Indy goal multiple times already picked up on a ball from Poku and struck with his left foot at the top of the box and curled the ball past Jon Busch to give Miami a lead going into the break.

It can be demoralizing to let a goal in right at the half, when players and coaches are already preparing themselves to get to the break and plan for the second half, but Indy Eleven were not ready to roll over just yet.

Coach Hankinson appeared to use this game as an opportunity to bring players in his depleted roster up to match fitness. Brandon Poltronieri and Jason Plumhoff who had seen some good touches in the first half were replaced for the second 45 by Ben Speas and Anthony Manning, no doubt in an effort to gain fitness for the upcoming games against Michigan Bucks and Miami FC at home.

With only 10 minutes of the second half played and despite a considerable reshuffle in the Indy lineup, the Eleven found themselves level in the game again. Ben Speas delivered a corner from Miami's left and in an attempt to head clear Miami defender Hunter Freeman redirected the ball into the far side of his own net. The game was tied at 1-1 and I am sure many Indy Eleven fans watching would have loved the game to end at that point.

Indy Eleven's hopes faded in a flurry of activity from 60-65 minutes in the game, after spurning many chances in the game up until this point Miami FC found the net twice in the space of a few minutes. Dylan Mares broke some hearts by putting his team 2-1 ahead in the 61st minute. Setting up a one two with team mate Enzo Rennella, Lovel Palmer closed the pass down but it came back off the heel of Rennella and into the path of Mares who slammed the ball low past Jon Busch.

Only four minutes later Hunter Freeman the guilty party in Indy Eleven's equalizing goal played a cross that found Robert Kcira and his right footed shot from outside the box found the back of the net to give Miami a two goal lead in the game, it was a superb goal. It was also a crushing goal and at this point in the game you had to wonder just how bad it might get from this point.

Don Smart was another welcome sight returning to the field after several weeks out, he entered in the 72nd minute to replace David Goldsmith. Indy looked for more width to try and press Miami, there was little point in trying to be defensive in a game that looked already lost.

Smart was instrumental in helping the Boys in Blue pull another goal back in the game. In the 83rd minute the usual trickery from Don deep in the corner allowed hi to split two defenders and send a low pass in front of goal, one that looked a little too easy to gather. A complete breakdown in communication between keeper Vega and his defense allowed the ball to roll on past everyone and Justin Braun slotted home to reduce the deficit to only one goal.



The second goal offered a glimmer of hope for Indy and they never gave up on finding the equalizer right until the final whistle when Tanner Thompson worked well inside the Miami box but his final shot on goal was blocked and the game was over. Indy Eleven received their first taste of defeat in 2017 at the hands of league leaders Miami FC.

Well we thought it was finished, in one of the most bizarre moments I have seen in a game, both sides complained to the referee that he had stopped the game one minute before the allocated four minutes of stoppage time and after some back and forth the game was restarted for one minute. The score remained the same, credit to Alessandro Nesta, his team had already won but he seemed hell bent on getting that minute played and he pulled it off.

Where do we go from here?

There is an old saying that until you can never really be a winner until you have tasted defeat. The season to date has been a struggle for Indy Eleven that goes without saying, they have fought well to earn every point they have, but there is a breaking point. I think it was Éamon Zayed who was quoted last year as saying "it is how you react to defeat that defines you as a player and as a team".

The best way to remove that bitter taste is to move on and win. Indy despite their injury issues have had opportunities to give new players and returning players game time with the aim of bringing all players up to match fitness and this will pay off in the long run. In the coming weeks with a little luck we may be in an enviable position of having too many players to choose from. It still is very difficult to be disappointed with this team.

It may seem puzzling to some to see two substitutes being used at half time in the game, all games are important, but as I mentioned in a preview for this match, it is probably the least critical of the three we have to play this week. Hankinson has used this game to give Plumhoff, Poltronieri, Goldsmith, Manning, Speas and Don Smart valuable game time.

The midweek game against Michigan Bucks in the US Open Cup I am sure will not be taken lightly, but again it offers us further opportunity to bring fitness back to multiple players within the roster. By the time May 20th and the home tie against Miami FC rolls around, our opposition will no doubt see a much changed side from the one they have just defeated. Indy Eleven need a first home win, and also have an unbeaten home record to protect. If you want to answer critics, you may as well do it against the toughest opponent you can find.

Sixes and Sevens: Miami FC v Indy Eleven Preview (05/13/2017)

Ben Speas, Marco Franco and Adrian Ables on the bench behind the bench.

By: James Cormack

There are times when fate can conspire to make life tough, and then there are times when fate just seems to be having a laugh. Indy Eleven have now had their fair share of misfortune, with a mounting injury list and now suspension, one wonders how much longer it will be before Lady Luck smiles upon us again.

In the run up to Indy Eleven's sixth consecutive league draw last weekend there was a feeling that the time was right for Indy Eleven to get their first win, and prior to the match we saw the unwelcome sight of Marco Franco not dressed to play and sitting on the bench reserved for those unable to play any part in the game.

Franco's unavailability brought our injury list to six which also includes Don Smart, Ben Speas, Nemanja Vukovic, Anthony Manning, and Adrian Ables. Against FC Edmonton only four outfield players were available as subs and only two of those were signed for the commencement of the 2017 season, Craig Henderson and David Goldsmith. Jason Plumhoff and Brandon Poltronieri were announced as signing for the team just days before the match and both saw time on the field.

As if things were not already bad enough, head coach Tim Hankinson had to leave the match knowing he would be without starting center mid Brad Ring for the next game after two really unnecessary yellow cards. Will that be the straw that breaks the camels back, or will this roster continue to galvanize and support each other in avoiding defeat?

Don Smart in good spirits.

When life gives you lemons....

If all matches were decided on paper, then I could end this preview now by telling you that Indy Eleven have suffered their first defeat of the 2017 season at the hands of Miami FC, current league leaders and many a pundit's favorite to dominate NASL this year.

Yes on paper Miami FC have a roster that most other teams in the league would just like to have half of. Their list of players is strong to the point that even with an injury crisis of their own they could still field an enviable starting team.

Indy Eleven will play three games in seven days starting with Miami FC in Florida followed by a US Open Cup match in Pontiac, Michigan against Michigan Bucks before meeting Miami FC again in Indianapolis on May 20th.

Brad Ring will be an obvious omission from this weekends starting lineup due to suspension but the starters and bench will most likely be a mystery unsolved and presumably based on the importance on the following two games. One other certainty to be missing is Nemanja Vukovic, a relative newbie to the injury list, we may not see him again until Indy Eleven return to action at Carroll Stadium.

Prior to kickoff last Saturday I was informed Marco Franco's condition was not too serious and mostly precautionary, it is likely he will be available to start against Miami. Don Smart looked chipper and even had time for some impromptu pre-match free styling. Ben Speas looked comfortable on his feet but bored as he took a seat to watch the game. Both Smart and Speas look ready for some game time, the question is do you start them in the first of a series of three games away from home?

I highly doubt that Don Smart or Ben Speas will start against Miami, if either do it is more likely to be Don, it would be an aggressive move from Hankinson and an unnecessary one. If I were to prioritize the importance of the next three games then the home game against Miami and the USOC game in Michigan are probably going to take precedence.

Indy Eleven have come through six games defiantly and remain undefeated, still without a win but proving very difficult to beat. There will be a little bit of juggling this week again, Gerardo Torrado will be without Brad Ring for the first time and will hold down the center of midfield most likely with Ubiparipović in front of him. Hankinson can opt for a little pace on the flanks this week if he chooses to start Plumhoff and Thompson together or even David Goldsmith.

Sixes then Sevens?

Miami FC's Dylan Mares traded dark blue for light and Indy will debut their new white Adidas kit this weekend.

It's going to be tough, but we still have enough to be able to make this game difficult. I am as tired of draws as the next man, and as cliche as it is I have to say "I will take the draw now!". Indy Eleven have played six games, drawn six games, scored six goals, conceded six goals and sit on six points. Will all those sixes change to sevens this week, it's highly possible.

If Indy Eleven can come away from Miami still undefeated it could be a very pivotal result when it comes down to the end of the regular season. Miami are the team to beat this year, but there is no insurmountable gap between them nor any other team so far. We may not be able to start the players we want to, nor play the way we wish to, but we can still force teams to drop points in their own house as we proved in Jacksonville.

If there is a way to win this game there is no doubt Indy will look to exploit it, but the main objective will be not losing and this is achievable, we may have to put up with one more tied game before we see a win, and I'm okay with that and staying 5pts from Miami FC. We will then have an opportunity in the US Open Cup to perhaps dabble a bit and give returning players more game time in preparation for Miami's visit to Indianapolis.

"We seem to be back to the Indy Eleven of old where we're hard to play against, we just need to turn the corner now and find the back of the net and turn those one points into three because that's what it's all about" - Colin Falvey following 0-0 tie with FC Edmonton.

If you have not seen the 3rd round matchups for the US Open Cup, Indy Eleven if they progress will play either NPSL's FC Wichita or USL's St Louis FC on the 31st of May at Carroll Stadium with a 7pm kick off. 

ShambleMetrics: Betting Picks and Preview (W5 2017)

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 3: 2-2-0 (OVR: 8-3-1 / +11.73 units / +31.69% ROI)

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Favorite Lines and ShambleMetrics:

Miami FC to win (-130, ★★★★★): Finding any kind of consistency continues to be a struggle for Carolina -- showcased once again by being on both sides of a 3-1 result in back-to-back weeks.

No team lost more on the road in 2016 than Carolina (68.75%), and a rested Miami squad should prove too much to handle. We successfully faded NCFC away from home against the Deltas, and we'll do so again here.

New York Cosmos -1 (-115, ★★★★): While I'd love to see Jacksonville's surprising start continue, expect this week to be a harsh reality check. It's tough to fault a team with three clean sheets in as many games, and the Armada defense might even be good enough to keep them off the bottom of the table (though I have my doubts) -- but they offer very little in the final third. 

Until they score a goal that isn't gifted to them by the free-falling Eddies, I'll continue to be skeptical.

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Predictions:

We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Current Standings:

Caleb: 32
Brian: 26
James: 21
Brandon: 18
Jordan: 18
Mark: 10

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Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

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ShambleMetrics: Betting Picks and Preview (W3 2017)

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 2: 3-1-0 (OVR: 6-1-1 / +11.43 units / +49.68% ROI)

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Favorite Lines and ShambleMetrics:

FC Edmonton vs Jacksonville Armada - Under 2.5 Goals (-140, ★★★★★): Deja vu.

With an extremely high number of weekly rematches, the NASL schedule presents its teams (and us) with a unique challenge in 2017. These back-to-back replays are, in my opinion, the most difficult type of games to predict in soccer. 

Not only is it easy to fall victim to simply overvaluing the previous week's result, but there are a large number of intangible variables which can have a much larger role than they usually would. Individual and team tactical flexibility and adaptability impacting these fixtures may be obvious, but even something as simple as the ability to effectively get under your opponent's skin (I would expect to see an above-average number of cards this weekend) can -- and often will -- change the result.

In weeks like this -- particularly early in the season where our sample size is still so small -- finding a constant is key. 

Including last week, 27 of Edmonton's previous 32 matches have finished under 2.5 goals. Ride the wave. I strongly believe First Half Draw (+110, ★★) to be worth a play as well.

Miami FC vs New York Cosmos - Both Teams to Score (-150), ★★★★): After successfully fading the Cosmos in the first two weeks of the season, we'll be relying on them to at least find the net in this one -- something they've failed to do thus far in 2017. Their opponent's net, anyway.

Placing this much confidence in a team with more own goals (1) than shots on target (0) might be toeing the edge of the gambler's fallacy ("they're due for it!"), but Gio Savarese is still one of the best coaches in North America. If nothing else, have faith in his ability to make effective adjustments. Even if they fail to get a result, expect them to put up a much better fight. 

San Francisco Deltas to Win (-110, ★★★): I said before the season opener that sleeping on Marc Dos Santos and the Deltas would be a mistake. Here's where I put my (proverbial) money where my mouth was.

No team in the league lost more games on the road in 2016 than Carolina (68.75%). While their attack looks superb on paper, finishing problems plagued them against Miami. Defensive inconsistency appears to still be an issue as well.

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Predictions:

We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Current Standings:

Caleb: 13
Brian: 11
James: 10
Mark: 6
Brandon: 5
Jordan: 4

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Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

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Don't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook!

ShambleMetrics: Betting Picks and Preview (W2 2017)

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 1: 3-0-1 (W-L-P) / +6.47 units / +53.93% ROI)

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Favorite Lines and ShambleMetrics:

Jacksonville Armada vs. FC Edmonton Under 2.5 Goals (-108), ★★★): Few teams in any league have seen a single consistent betting strategy be as profitable as FC Edmonton and the under were in 2016. Led by Golden Glove winner Matt Van Oekel (now starting for Real Salt Lake of MLS), FCE saw an incredible 26 of 32 (81.25%) matches end with two goals or fewer. The percentage grew even higher (87.5%) when away from home. 

It's unrealistic to expect this level of defensive dominance (paired with relative offensive ineptitude) again in 2017, but Colin Miller loves a clean sheet. Chris Konopka is a very suitable replacement for Van Oekel at this level (and boasts a similarly-monstrous wingspan), while the central duo of Albert Watson and Pape Diakite will continue to be the bedrock of a team with playoff aspirations.

FC Edmonton Draw No Bet (-110, ★★★★): Shifting to the other side of the story, the Jacksonville Armada are beginning a campaign which many believe -- myself included -- will be a season-long struggle to escape the bottom of the table. Nothing will come easy for the league-owned team moving to a new stadium with a subpar roster (all while wearing sponsorless white t-shirts). 

There's no reason to believe the Armada start the season with anything better than a point. FC Edmonton may not have enough to win outright, but I see very little risk in this play.

Miami FC Win/Draw Double Chance (-110, ★★★): Fading the Cosmos for a second week in a row (and this time in New York) is likely playing with fire, but I will continue to believe in the quality of Miami's roster -- several moments of precarious defensive play in their opener notwithstanding.

New York's home record is well known: Gio Savarese has his team riding the longest home unbeaten streak in NASL history. Even so, I have to love this value on a double chance line for a team I believe to have an MLS-caliber midfield, a team I (and many) believe to be the title favorites in 2017, and a team which has a very reliable track record on the road. 

Miami's loss percentage in 2016 (37.5%) was bettered only by Rayo OKC. 

Indy Eleven vs Puerto Rico FC Draw (+345, ★): Obviously not the result I want in this one, but these picks must go where the value dictates. 

This line is blatantly disrespectful to a Puerto Rico side which finished with the 5th-highest draw percentage on the road in 2016 (36.36%), despite being at an obvious disadvantage by starting play midseason. Adrian Whitbread's squad were also in the top-half of the league in road points earned per game (0.91), and won or drew 54.55% of their games away from home (6th in the NASL).

Indy's form at The Mike was otherworldly last season, and there's little reason to believe they'll fall off too drastically in 2017 (though matching perfection may be unrealistic) -- but nobody should be surprised if this match played out very similarly to the Eleven's home opener a year ago. 

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Predictions:

We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Current Standings:

Caleb: 10
James: 10
Brian: 8
Brandon: 5
Jordan: 4
Mark: 3

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Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

---

Don't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook!

2017 NASL Prediction Poll Results

The results of the prediction poll are in!

By: Brandon Cockrum

Before the first matches of the season, the contributors here shared our picks for the final combined 2017 NASL standings. At the same time we asked NASL fans to share their picks for the upcoming season. Below the results are compared:

2017 NASL Standings Predictions
	Bloody Shambles	NASL Fans
1	Miami FC	Miami FC
2	New York Cosmos	New York Cosmos
3	Indy Eleven	Indy Eleven
4	San Francisco Deltas	FC Edmonton
5	FC Edmonton	North Carolina FC
6	North Carolina FC	San Francisco Deltas
7	Puerto Rico FC	Puerto Rico FC
8	Jacksonville Armada FC	Jacksonville Armada FC

Fans and pundits agreed on five of the eight picks, the top three and bottom two. The middle of the pack - the fourth, fifth and sixth - were only positions where the two groups differed. Of all the teams, the Deltas saw the most variety in their predicted finish, a difference of two spots (4th and 6th) between the polls.

Some stats on the NASL Fan votes:

• Most consensus on ranking: Miami (51.6% of 1st place votes); New York (55.2% of 2nd place votes); Jacksonville (72.4% of 8th place votes)
• Fans from seven of the eight NASL clubs voted (Jacksonville, where you at? Not reading this blog, apparently.)
• Indy Eleven fans made up 54% of voters

We'll check back during the season to see how our predictions are looking.