Saturday, October 15, 2016

Week 27 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 25 Results: 0-2-0 (64-51-8 OVR / +1.24% ROI / +3.18 units)

Favorite Lines:

Indy Eleven to Win (-125, ): Expect some squad rotation tonight from Tim Hankinson, but there's value in expecting Indy's home unbeaten streak to continue with a victory. Carolina has the highest road losing percentage (64.29%) in the NASL, while the Eleven boast an incredible 78.57% winning percentage at Michael A. Carroll. Indy will earn three home points once again.

Minnesota United Draw No Bet (-120, ): Each of the last two weeks I've suggested a heavy fade of FC Edmonton, and both times it backfired in spectacular fashion. The Eddies poor offensive performances did finally catch up to them on Wednesday in Fort Lauderdale, however, in a 1-0 loss -- albeit with a heavily rotated squad. 

Minnesota's recent form has been utterly atrocious (no wins in their last six), and it certainly wouldn't surprise me if they drop points in this one -- but Colin Miller's side hasn't won on the road in two months, and I have a hard time imagining that this changes today.

It might not seem like it, but I also think there's value in the United win/draw double chance, even at -275.


We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Spring Standings:
James: 124
Caleb: 107
Seth: 107

Fall Standings:
James: 242
Caleb: 229
Brandon: 192*
Seth: 186

2016 Overall Standings:
Caleb: 353
James: 349
Seth: 293
Brandon: 192*

Points per Week:
Brandon: 14.77*
Caleb: 13.58
James: 13.42
Seth: 11.27
*Joined Week 14.

The ShambleMetrics:

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

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James (@bshambles_JC), Seth (@SoccerBits), and Brandon (@Brew_Wallace) can also be found on Twitter.

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