Saturday, March 25, 2017

ShambleMetrics: Betting Picks and Preview (Week 1 2017)

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

2016 Results: 70-54-8 OVR / +14.14 units / +4.92% ROI)

Favorite Lines and ShambleMetrics:

Miami FC Draw No Bet (+125, ). I was burned in the opener last season by picking pre-season hype (Minnesota at the time) over the Railhawks NCFC at Wake Med. Here's to hoping history doesn't repeat itself.

Miami's roster is simply too good to pass on this amount of value in a Draw No Bet line. The additions of Michel (who I believe to be the best offseason signing in the league), Dylan Mares, and Stefano Pinho turned an already solid roster into one which is utterly terrifying. I would even go as far as to say Miami's midfield is better than several in MLS.

No team scored more goals on the road in 2016 than Miami FC (1.38), with Nesta's squad being particularly prolific in the first half (0.75 goals per game, also a league-leading metric). Carolina, conversely, led the league in first-half goals conceded at home (0.56). Miami to score first (line not available at the time of publication) could also be an intriguing play if the value is right.

San Francisco Deltas vs Indy Eleven Under 2.5 (-105, ): Since 2014, six teams have joined the NASL as expansion sides. Only one (Jacksonville) earned all three points in their initial outing. Given this, I also think there's still value to be had in Indy Eleven Win/Draw Double Chance (-160, ). If you're looking for a higher-risk/higher-reward play, it's hard not to like the Draw result at +235.

The Deltas are a team which shouldn't be slept on this season, however. A very talented roster led by a very talented coach (both of which boast a wealth of NASL experience and success) will give the Bay Area plenty to be excited about.

It's no secret the Eleven struggled on the road last season. Hankinson's men -- most of whom have returned in 2017 -- boasted the second-lowest winning percentage away from home (12.5%), as well as the highest road draw percentage (43.75%).

Indy also kept their road games low-scoring: averaging 2.06 combined goals per game. Only Rayo OKC (1.69, may they rest in peace) and FC Edmonton (1.31) had lower average totals. It's also worth noting that Indy's total is even lower if we disregard road results where backup keeper Keith Cardona was given game time (eight total goals in two games).

Puerto Rico FC Win/Draw Double Chance (-115, ):

Here's where I go against the 2016 numbers a bit. PRFC's losing percentage at home was the fourth-highest in the NASL last season (27.27%), while the Cosmos tied OKC for the highest road winning percentage (37.5%). 

It's important to note, however, that Puerto Rico had a much smaller sample for these metrics due to missing the Spring season. Even more importantly is that they were undefeated at home in their final six games (2W 4D).

Both teams have seen their fair share of roster changes while still keeping a solid core from 2016, and the Cosmos are admittedly known for their fast starts -- but I fully expect Bayamon to be a tough trip for any team in the league this year.

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

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