Saturday, April 8, 2017

ShambleMetrics: Betting Picks and Preview (W3 2017)

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 2: 3-1-0 (OVR: 6-1-1 / +11.43 units / +49.68% ROI)

Favorite Lines and ShambleMetrics:

FC Edmonton vs Jacksonville Armada - Under 2.5 Goals (-140, ): Deja vu.

With an extremely high number of weekly rematches, the NASL schedule presents its teams (and us) with a unique challenge in 2017. These back-to-back replays are, in my opinion, the most difficult type of games to predict in soccer. 

Not only is it easy to fall victim to simply overvaluing the previous week's result, but there are a large number of intangible variables which can have a much larger role than they usually would. Individual and team tactical flexibility and adaptability impacting these fixtures may be obvious, but even something as simple as the ability to effectively get under your opponent's skin (I would expect to see an above-average number of cards this weekend) can -- and often will -- change the result.

In weeks like this -- particularly early in the season where our sample size is still so small -- finding a constant is key. 

Including last week, 27 of Edmonton's previous 32 matches have finished under 2.5 goals. Ride the wave. I strongly believe First Half Draw (+110, ★) to be worth a play as well.

Miami FC vs New York Cosmos - Both Teams to Score (-150), ): After successfully fading the Cosmos in the first two weeks of the season, we'll be relying on them to at least find the net in this one -- something they've failed to do thus far in 2017. Their opponent's net, anyway.

Placing this much confidence in a team with more own goals (1) than shots on target (0) might be toeing the edge of the gambler's fallacy ("they're due for it!"), but Gio Savarese is still one of the best coaches in North America. If nothing else, have faith in his ability to make effective adjustments. Even if they fail to get a result, expect them to put up a much better fight. 

San Francisco Deltas to Win (-110, ): I said before the season opener that sleeping on Marc Dos Santos and the Deltas would be a mistake. Here's where I put my (proverbial) money where my mouth was.

No team in the league lost more games on the road in 2016 than Carolina (68.75%). While their attack looks superb on paper, finishing problems plagued them against Miami. Defensive inconsistency appears to still be an issue as well.


We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Current Standings:

Caleb: 13
Brian: 11
James: 10
Mark: 6
Brandon: 5
Jordan: 4

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

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