Saturday, September 17, 2016

Week 23 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 22 Results: 2-1-0 (62-42-8 OVR / +11.42% ROI / +25.52 units)

Favorite Lines:

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Carolina Railhawks First Half Draw (+115, )The ShambleMetrics are giving this one a 57.69% chance of hitting, and for good reason. When it comes to First Half Draw % at home, no team with as large of a sample size can compete with the Rowdies (72.73%). Three of Carolina's last four matches have been level at half as well. 

Puerto Rico FC vs. Jacksonville Armada Under 2.5 Goals (-150, ): Puerto Rico hasn't scored in four, while Jacksonville boasts the second-worst Away Goals For metric in the league (0.62). I also love the value in Puerto Rico FC vs. Jacksonville Armada HT/FT Result: Draw / Draw (+315, ). In the fall season, these two teams have combined for two wins in 27 matches. 

Fort Lauderdale Strikers Win/Draw Double Chance (-155, ): Fort Lauderdale has quietly put together a six-game unbeaten streak, including games against Indy Eleven (win), the New York Cosmos (Draw) and Minnesota United (Draw). The Strikers also have the third-highest average point total on the road in 2016 (1.18), and are only behind Miami FC (1.42) and FC Edmonton (1.30) in that particular metric. 

Finally, it's worth noting that Rayo OKC is tied for the third-lowest home winning percentage in the league at 33%. It's a bargain to get this line at these odds.


We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Spring Standings:
James: 124
Caleb: 107
Seth: 107

Fall Standings:
James: 187
Caleb: 165
Brandon: 144*
Seth: 134

2016 Overall Standings:
James: 294
Caleb: 289
Seth: 241
Brandon: 144*

Points per Week:
Brandon: 16.00*
James: 13.36
Caleb: 13.14
Seth: 10.95

*Joined Week 14.

The ShambleMetrics:

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview ShowDon't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook

James (@bshambles_JC), Seth (@SoccerBits), and Brandon (@Brew_Wallace) can also be found on Twitter.

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