Indy Eleven Bound For NASL Final - Indy Eleven V FC Edmonton REVIEW (11/5/2016)

Siniša Ubiparipović and team mates celebrate the winning goal against FC Edmonton

By: James Cormack

Indy Eleven jumped over the penultimate hurdle on Saturday by defeating FC Edmonton by a goal to nil in their playoff semi final at Carroll Stadium. In the second semi final the New York Cosmos overcame Rayo OKC after going a goal down, a win for Rayo would have meant a final in Indianapolis, but it was not to be and the Cosmos eventually prevailed with a 2-1 win.

This means Indy Eleven will travel to New York and meet the Cosmos in he 2016 NASL Soccer Bowl at Belson Stadium in Queens NY on Sunday the 13th of November with a 7.00pm kick off. Indy Eleven having already made post season for the first time in their history will now play in their first ever Soccer Bowl final. New York will play in their third of the modern era, having won two of those in 2013 and 2015.

Indy Eleven started their semi final mostly as expected, the positions of defensive midfield and right back were probably the only two where changes would have been made, Marco Franco was given the starting spot over Lovel Palmer and Brad Ring preferred over Torrado. From the back it was Jon Busch, Marco Franco, Colin Falvey, Greg Janicki, Nemanja Vukovic, Don Smart, Brad Ring, Siniša Ubiparipovic, Dyland Mares, Justin Braun and Éamon Zayed. Cardona, Paterson, Gordon, Keller, Youla, Lacroix, Palmer and Torrado made up the bench.

Irish on Show! Colin Falvey looks on as Albert Watson and Éamon Zayed compete for the ball.

The semi final against FC Edmonton was as expected a very tight affair, the first half was a game of chess with no goals to show but from my own view of the game Indy Eleven definitely looking the most likely team to open the scoring. Jon Busch was seldom troubled in the match, in the first half he had to make one gather from a Dustin Correa shot in the 6th minute, and had Sainey Nyassi's 8th minute header been a few inches lower  Busch would have been beaten.

Matt Van Oekel had a a relatively busier time in both halves, before two minutes of the game being played Don Smart cut into center from the right and forced a diving save from the Edmonton keeper. Dylan Mares would be next to force Van Oekel into acrobatics after a fine strike from outside the 18 forced was stopped from hitting the left corner of the net at the expense of a corner. After a scramble in Edmonton's box in the 38th minute Marco Franco found himself in a rare position on the edge of the 6 to score but Van Oekel went long to fingertip the ball around the upright for a corner.

Colin Falvey took a head knock and a cut but played out the rest of the game bandaged.

The resulting corner saw a coming together of heads between Colin Falvey and Tomi Ameobi who had come back to help defend. After a delay of play captain Falvey who received a cut to the top of his head from the clash was bandaged up and returned to play shortly after Ameobi who also left the field. Both teams head into the break deadlocked at 0-0.

Indy Eleven started the second half again with the best chances, first from Don Smart in the 56th minute with a shot from the top of the D that was well wide and a few minutes later Justin Braun put a diving header in behind goal.

Indy Eleven finally broke the stalemate in the 63rd minute with a well place shot from Ubiparipović that took everyone including Matt Van Oekel by surprise. Dylan Mares played a through ball from the center of the field into Éamon Zayed, after a back and fore between Zayed and Mares, Dylan laid it back into the path of Siniša Ubiparipović and from just outside the 18 he placed a perfectly weighted ball into the top right corner of Edmonton's goal, Van Oekel saw it late and I think managed to get a finger tip to it, but it was ultimately unstoppable.


As tight as this game was, Indy always looked like scoring first, one goal was probably always going to be enough, even though it is not the most comfortable lead. With our attack having done it's job and found the opening it was up to our back line and of course our goalkeeper to make sure that lead was no lost.

Hankinson made a tactical switch in the 75th minute bringing on Gerardo Torrado for Indy's goalscorer Ubiparipović adding a more defensive element to the midfield alongside Ring, both players with an ability to add steel to the center and break down attacks. Duke Lacroix would also add fresh legs to the game in the 80th minute replacing Smart, Indy Eleven used only two of their available three substitutions.

In the 87th minute Tomi Ameobi had probably his best chance of the game after he met with a right side cross and headed down towards goal from close range. Jon Busch stepped up with probably the save of the game and got down low to his left to snuff out the striker's header and ensured Indy Eleven's safe passage into the 2016 NASL Soccer Bowl Final. Unlike the last game between these two there was no switching off or falling asleep. Indy were dialed in and on point for the entire 90 minutes plus stoppage and proved once again they are arguably the best team in the league.

Tim Hankinson thanks the supporters after winning Indy Eleven's first ever post season game.

The final whistle blew and Indy Eleven had won their first ever post season game in NASL and advanced to their first ever final. Having won the Spring Championship shield they now have an opportunity to win it all.

Tim Hankinson has been vocal about his goal from day one of setting foot in Indianapolis and he has backed up everything he has said about how this team will play, and how every other team will have to figure out how to stop them. It seems like a distant past where Indy Eleven turned around a 1-0 deficit to beat the New York Cosmos for the first time, that was the moment we knew we had something pretty special happening in Indy and now we are one win away from being Champions thanks to Tim Hankinson along with a great coaching staff and a highly experienced and determined group of players.

We may have to travel to New York to play in that final, but we will by no means be an underdog in this final. Indy Eleven is the team to beat, we will play our game and it will be up to the Cosmos to figure out how not to lose against us. At the beginning of 2016 all I wanted to see was a competitive team capable of making the post season. We have surpassed that and everything else is a bonus, we have the mental attitude and the technical ability to win it all, and I have a feeling we are going to do just that next Sunday. Enjoy it!

So we'll see you in New York next weekend, be there or be square..........

NASL Semifinal Preview: Indy Versus Edmonton, Finally

Indy Eleven look to extend their home dominance to The Championship. 

By: Brandon Cockrum

Can anything new be written about Indy Eleven and their journey to The Championship? Tens of thousands of words from this blog and other sources have documented the Eleven’s journey from overwhelming local support despite two disappointing seasons to an offseason overhaul and their current status as a strong number two seed in the league playoffs.

Supporters of the club have been handsomely rewarded this year for their loyalty and exuberance by a squad that has delivered significantly more peaks than valleys, and even a few iconic moments. The Championship presents an opportunity for the Eleven to deliver a final prize to the fans in 2016 as well as a chance for the club to entrench itself as one of the most successful lower-division clubs, off and on the field.

Across the border in Canada, after coming close to making the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, FC Edmonton identified two areas that they could improve upon in 2016 to ensure that their squad would not fall short for a third consecutive year. First, the club traveled to Glasgow, Scotland for preseason training, which allowed the team to bond, put players in a soccer-first atmosphere and helped the squad be competitive from kickoff in match week one. Second, as the NASL’s most distantly-located franchise, the team began traveling one day earlier to away matches in effort to lessen the impact of travel upon their matches and to acclimate themselves to the climate of their opponent.

These initiatives worked and when paired with their traditional stonewall defense the Eddies were able to maintain pace with the league leaders, qualifying easily for the playoffs. For FC Edmonton, The Championship represents an opportunity to cement themselves as a dominant force on the pitch and, maybe most importantly, inspire a fan base that has been slow to reach critical mass but that is crucial to their long-term success. 

INDvFCE Series

All-time: FC Edmonton 4 wins, Indy Eleven 3 wins, 2 draws

Season: 1-1-1

May 7 in Indianapolis, IND 1 - FCE 1:

Both teams were able to find the back of the net once in the first half of a week five matchup but the quality chances were few and far between. Center back Greg Janicki opened the scoring with a goal off a set piece and fifteen minutes later the Eddies pulled even with a counter attack goal from the head of Jake Keegan. The 90 minutes was devoid of many quality chances and primarily a goalkeeping clinic with Indy’s Jon Busch and Edmonton’s Matt Van Oekel snuffing out anything that made it past their defense.   // Highlights: https://youtu.be/ptSo5S7RWGg

July 23 in Indianapolis, IND 1 - FCE 0:

Visiting the Eleven on a hot July evening and minus their boss starting center backs, Albert Watson and Papa Diakite, FC Edmonton was expected to sit back, conserve energy and absorb pressure for 90 minutes. After conceding a 13th minute goal to Indy’s Greg Janicki, the Eddies were forced to attack. The visitors nearly evened the score twice in the mid-part of the first half and Edmonton goalkeeper Matt Van Oekel made a number of fine saves to keep his club in the match until the end. The summer heat took its toll on both teams but Edmonton had enough in the tank to test Indy until the final whistle. Two near goal-line saves from Indy midfielder Brad Ring (one on a corner-kick header from goalie Van Oekel) sealed the victory for Indy.   // Highlights:  https://youtu.be/yvlENJVX-5s

Oct. 2 in Edmonton, IND 1 - FCE 2:

This late season battle in Edmonton featured two healthy squads going toe-to-toe for second place in the standings. The opening half featured numerous quality chances for both clubs to score but entered halftime 0-0. In the second half, Éamon Zayed struck first for the visitors with a 56th minute goal. Indy missed opportunities to double their lead before Diakite evened up the match in the 80th minute with a fine volley off of a ping-ponged corner kick that fell to his feet. Just as it looked that both sides would leave the pitch with one point, Edmonton’s Ben Fisk found the game winner through a counter attack in the 94th minute.   // Highlights: https://youtu.be/Qj7XQcmrvRg

Greg Janicki has scored 2 of Indy's 3 goals against Edmonton in 2016.

Team Results

FC Edmonton

Season: 15-8-9 // 25 Goals For (0.78 /game), 21 Goals Allowed (0.70 /game), 16 Shutouts

Road: 3-6-7 // Have not won a road match since August 20

Last 10: 3-3-4 // 5 GF, 7 GA 

Key Trend: Eight (32%) of their 25 goals came from headers and only one goal was scored from outside of penalty box. 

Indy Eleven

Season: 15-10-7 // 51 GF (1.59 /game) , 33 GA (1.03/game), 11 shutouts

Home: 13-3-0 // 4-1-0 with 12 GF and 2 GA in last five home matches

Last 10: 5-2-3 // 17 GF, 10 GA

Key Trend: 5-1-1 (15 GF, 5 GA) record in fall season with attacking midfielder Siniša Ubiparipović in the starting lineup.

Projected Lineups

FC Edmonton // 4-1-4-1 (R to L)

Van Oekel

Nicklaw - Diakite - Watson - Eckersley

Ledgerwood

Keegan - Shome - Fordyce -  Nyassi

Ameobi

Key Stats:

GK Matt Van Oekel // 0.55 Goals Against Average

MF Daryl Fordyce // 7 Goals, 3 Assists

MF/FW Jake Keegan // 5 G

FW Tomi Ameobi  // 2 G (7 G in 2015)

Captain Albert Watson will lead FC Edmonton into battle.

Indy Eleven // 4-4-2 Diamond

Busch

Palmer - Falvey - Janicki - Vukovic

Smart - Ring - Ubiparipović - Mares

Braun - Zayed

Key Stats:

GK Jon Busch // 0.93 GAA

FW Eamon Zayed // 15 G, 6 A

FW Justin Braun // 8 G , 5 A

MF Dylan Mares // 5 G, 6 A

Indy’s starting lineup is a known entity and only the defensive midfield and right back starters are debatable. At defensive midfielder we are tabbing Brad Ring to start over Gerardo Torrado because the latter has missed a few recent matches due to injury and the lineup with Ring has shown great consistency in that time. A 60th minute substitution of Torrado for Ring (or vice versa if Torrado starts) would be a good bet. At right back we believe Lovel Palmer will start rather than Marco Franco because of the experience that Palmer and goalkeeper Jon Busch have from a few seasons playing together. Franco is superior when Indy has possession but Palmer’s size and strength could be important on set pieces, and his almost telepathic way of communicating with goalkeeper Busch seems to help the defense coalesce.

Bloody Shambles Staff Predictions

Key player for Edmonton

Brandon Cockrum: Matt Van Oekel. Edmonton’s goalie is on the short list for player of the year and proved why in his three previous matches against the Eleven. Van Oekel was a difference maker in each match, making difficult saves that kept his club in the games. The Eleven will assuredly get their chances on goal and Van Oekel may need to keep all of them out for his team to emerge victorious.

James Cormack: 
FC Edmonton have great difficulties scoring lately and I expect a similar scenario for them on Saturday. They are going to need a top performance from a playmaker; the fact Sainey Nyassi only has four assists in 2016 and is their leading player in that statistic says it all, but most likely it will require a big game from Nyassi or possibly Daryl Fordyce.



Caleb Ramp: Matt Van Oekel. 0.55 GAA, enough said.

Key player for Indy

Brandon Cockrum: Éamon Zayed. The Irish striker lives for the big moment and may be the most clutch player in the league. In many of Indy’s biggest matches this season Zayed has found the net, most memorably in defining victories over New York and Carolina. He has the size to battle with Edmonton’s tough center backs and his positioning and awareness frequently puts him in the right place at the right time. With Zayed’s guile, just three shots on goal could add another chapter to his legend as a hat-trick hero.

James Cormack: It's hard to pick just one, but it will be someone in the midfield that can help open up the Edmonton back line. Ubiparipović, I feel could be the guy that is going to find the key pass to put attackers through, and Dylan Mares will also be very important doing the same or putting the ball in the net.



Siniša Ubiparipović has sparked the Indy offense with his re-emergence this Fall.

Caleb Ramp: Greg Janicki. Execution of set pieces - on both sides of the ball - are going to decide this match. There's a reason Greg scored two of Indy's three regular season goals against the Eddies. Honorable mention: Brad Ring. Brad's mobility and bulldog mentality will be crucial in shutting down Edmonton's counter attacking opportunities as they arise. If Ring doesn't start, Indy's likelihood of winning drops drastically.

Edmonton can win if…

Brandon Cockrum: The Edmonton defense has been the best in the league this season and their back five are among the top performers at their positions. While their attack would never be described as “strong” it has been capable of manufacturing enough goals to secure victories. The Eddies can win if Van Oekel stonewalls Indy for a full match and their offense can take advantage of Indy’s susceptibility to counter attacks on the wings. This team is used to winning matches late (maybe even more than Indy), so another goal in the games waning moments could propel them into the final.

James Cormack: 

If they can sign Lionel Messi maybe? Scoring is a big issue for them and if Indy Eleven plays with their big game mentality it is hard to see where the Eddies' goals will come from against this team at home. Holding Indy to 0-0 and winning on penalties might work, and would also be very painful to watch.


Caleb Ramp: Van Oekel is on his game, and the Eddies can force extra time and penalties. If this game goes the distance, Edmonton immediately flips from the underdog to a heavy favorite. 6'4" Van Oekel vs. 5'9" Jon Busch is not a shootout matchup the Eleven want to see.

Indy can win if…

Brandon Cockrum: Indy has a quality defense as well but their offense has driven the team's success. At home this season, Indy has reliably scored at least two goals and allowed one or fewer. If the Eleven can execute the game plan, limit Edmonton's clean shots on goal and stay focused until the final whistle they should emerge victorious.

James Cormack: 

Indy needs to bring their big game mentality and I expect that they will, like they did against Carolina to win the spring. As we saw in the road game at Edmonton, any falling asleep or switching off is costly, but if everyone is on the same page for 90 minutes they will win.


Caleb Ramp: Coach Hankinson pours it on early. The longer the match goes without a goal, the more likely it is that Indy can be beaten by one perfectly-executed counter-attack. The Eddies have thrived by keeping a match scoreless in the first half, and closing it out in the second. Indy can't allow that to happen.

Who will win and how?

Brandon Cockrum: Indy will win. The Eleven scored first in the three previous matches and I expect they will do the same this Saturday. Look for a midfielder to feed Zayed for a goal. If Edmonton is able to even the match, the Eleven will be spurred on by the Brickyard Battalion to find a match winner, possibly in extra time.

James Cormack: Indy Eleven will win. I do not see this game going over 90 minutes, as Indy's home form is what sets them apart. If the Eleven get one goal they will win, and they may get more, but as long as they get one and shut them out they’ll be fine. Indy, players and supporters, will have to be patient.


Caleb Ramp: Eleven will win 2-1. In the latter half of the season, Indy has repeatedly shown the ability to be lethal when given the bulk of possession at home -- something the Eddies will likely cede. The Eleven will first find the net toward the end of the first half, then double their lead near the 55-60th minute via a Don Smart counterattack. The Eddies will bring one back 10-15 minutes later (leading to a nervy final few minutes), but the Indy defense will ultimately withstand a terrifying set piece onslaught late.

Who will meet in the NASL final?

Brandon Cockrum: My heart and eyes want to witness a league final between Rayo OKC and Indy at Carroll stadium. My gut tells me that Indy will be traveling to New York City next weekend to face the Cosmos in an intimate environment for the coveted Soccer Bowl.

NASL's Soccer Bowl Trophy

James Cormack: 

I actually have a feeling it will be Indy Eleven and Rayo OKC. Rayo have proved they can handle pressure games and have played well against NYC this year; if they can score first I think they can progress. 

Caleb Ramp: Indy Eleven and Rayo OKC. Rayo enters the semifinals with the longest unbeaten streak of the four playoff teams. They were statistically the best road team in the NASL in 2016, and are one of only two teams (FC Edmonton) to earn a point in New York. Moreover, OKC is one of only three clubs (along with Indy Eleven and FC Edmonton) to finish the season with a positive aggregate goal differential vs. the Cosmos (4-2) - and the only team to do so while having to play in New York twice.

Final NASL Table Predictions

Who will join Indy Eleven in the NASL's The Championship playoffs?

By: Brandon Cockrum

The final month of the season has arrived and NASL clubs have between five and seven matches remaining. As a weekend warrior statistician, I thought it would be fun to try to project some of the final standings using the performance of the clubs so far this season. For those of you that invest in the stock market (or those that plan to in the future), you should be familiar with the phrase, “Past performance is NOT necessarily an indicator of future results.” However, since we’re not investing our hard earned cash into this, we’re totally going to use past performance as an indicator of future results. 

As the winners of the Spring championship Indy has secured one playoff spot as well as the right to host a semifinal playoff game. The majority of table questions remain:

• Which club will win the Fall season and the right to host the other semifinal playoff? 
• Which club will win the Combined season? 
• Which clubs will make the playoffs and what will the semifinal seeds and matchups be? 

To arrive at the results I put together a formula that used three different Points Per Game (PPG) figures to estimate the number of points that would be earned in a club's remaining games:

1. Fifty percent of the estimated final points were pulled from Fall season home and away matches, the PPG from each were multiplied by the number of home or away games remaining for a club.  
2. Twenty-five percent of the estimated final points were pulled from a club’s combined season PPG. 
3. Twenty-five percent of the estimated final points were pulled from a club’s PPG over their last five games. 

Finally, I didn’t include all twelve clubs in the predicted standings. There’s really only eight of them that have a real shot at the playoffs (and, even more realistically, five of them are competing for one spot.) I’ve also included the standings for only the top four likely finishers in the Fall table. (Lastly, if you want predicted points for each and every team or feel that my formula is woefully inaccurate, feel free to do your own damn formulas.)

And now, your predicted final table results: 

Fall Season Winner: New York Cosmos 

Combined Season Winner: New York Cosmos
Semifinal Matchups: 1) New York Cosmos (H) vs 4) Miami FC and 2) Indy Eleven (H) vs 3) FC Edmonton

If the table predictions are accurate, New York is just two points away from having enough points to win both the Fall and the combined seasons. After posting a last-place finish (11th) in the Spring campaign, Miami’s player acquisitions will propel them way up the table and into a second place Fall finish. This performance looks to be good enough to edge out Minnesota by two and equal Tampa Bay in combined season points, with Miami FC winning the fourth and final seed via a tie-breaker on Goal Differential or Goals Scored. Indy and Edmonton finish second and third in the predicted, final combined season table. 

Do you have any predictions for how the Fall and combined tables will shake out? Think these results are whack? Share your thoughts on Twitter with Brandon (@brew_wallace) and Bloody Shambles (@bloody_shambles).