Saturday, August 6, 2016

Week 17 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 16 Results: 3-1-0 (+3.83 units)
Midweek Results: 1-1-0 (52-34-7 OVR / +12.88% ROI / +22.34 units)

Favorite Lines:

Puerto Rico FC vs. FC Edmonton Under 2.5 Goals (-145, ): Matches including the Eddies are averaging a combined 1.56 goals per game in 2016 -- by far the lowest mark in the NASL. No team has conceded fewer goals in total or on the road this season. Continue to ride the Under play in FC Edmonton's matches until the two are no longer synonymous.

New York Cosmos vs. Rayo OKC Over 2.5 Goals (-115, ): Going into the week, I had expected to be all over a Rayo OKC/Draw double chance line for the value. New York's incredible home winning streak will end eventually, and who better than the best road team in the NASL (and a team that had just defeated the Cosmos 3-0 a few weeks ago) to do so? 

Rayo OKC's major off-field issues, unfortunately, will keep me far away from predicting an upset in this one, but I do still think we see several goals.

Indy Eleven to win (+100, ★): The Fury are one of only two teams to earn a point from the Eleven in Indianapolis this season. They're in good form, and they (unlike the Eleven) will be coming off of a full week of rest.

That being said: Tim Hankinson's men continue to put in otherworldly offensive performances at home, averaging 2.44 goals per game at Michael A. Carroll Stadium (a league-leading metric). Ottawa, though performing better in recent weeks, has earned the second-fewest road points in the NASL in 2016 (excluding Puerto Rico). 

Much like FC Edmonton and the Under play, continue to ride Indy at home until the value disappears. There's plenty of it to be had with this line. 

Tampa Bay Rowdies to win (+100, ): Tampa Bay has consistently under-performed at home this season (currently below the league average in expected home points per game), but Fort Lauderdale doesn't have a single point on the road since May 27th. 

The Rowdies officially announced the acquisition of the Striker's best player this week. Expect Tampa to take three points from them too.


We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Fall Standings:
James: 83
Caleb: 74
Seth: 63
Brandon: 45*

"Brandon Era":
James: 46
Brandon: 45
Seth: 41
Caleb: 41

2016 Overall Standings:
Caleb: 198
James: 190
Seth: 170
Brandon: 45*

*Joined Week 14.

The ShambleMetrics:

Jacksonville Armada vs. Carolina Railhawks
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultDRAWDRAW: DIF 0.21DRAW: DIF 0.65OVER 2.5 - 2.63

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs. Fort Lauderdale Strikers
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultTBRTBR: DIF 0.95TBR: DIF 1.51OVER 2.5 - 2.7

Puerto Rico FC vs. FC Edmonton
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultDRAWDRAW: DIF 0.5DRAW: DIF 0.2UNDER 2.5: 1.63

Indy Eleven vs. Ottawa Fury
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultINDIND: DIF 1.7IND: DIF 1.9OVER 2.5 - 2.64

Minnesota United vs. Miami FC
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultMNUMNU: DIF 1.47MNU: DIF 2.07OVER 2.5 - 3.21

New York Cosmos vs. Rayo OKC
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultNYCNYC: DIF 1.04NYC: DIF 1.37UNDER 2.5 - 2.32

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview ShowDon't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook

James (@bshambles_JC), Seth (@SoccerBits), and Brandon (@Brew_Wallace) can also be found on Twitter.

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