Saturday, July 9, 2016

Week 13 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

ShambleMetrics: Introducing Bloody Shambles' first statistical NASL prediction model. The model is based on various carefully weighted key metrics I used in the Spring Season with much success.

Here's the 8-minute mini-podcast which takes a high-level overview of how the model works, plus a look at my five favorite lines of the week:

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 12 Results: 2-1-2 (43-21-7 OVR / +24.82% ROI / +30.16 units)

Favorite Lines:

Indy Eleven vs. Minnesota United Over 2.5 Goals (-120, ): When playing at Michael A Carroll, Indy Eleven has the single highest Goals For average (2.4) and the third-highest Goals Against averages (1.20) in the league. When on the road, Minnesota has the third-highest GA avg (1.80). Indy will still likely be missing captain and elite NASL centerback Colin Falvey as well. All signs point toward goals.

If you haven't already, be sure to check out James's deeper look into this matchup.

Indy Eleven Draw No Bet (-130, ★): As scary as Minnesota's 5-1 drubbing of Carolina might look in comparison to Indy's unimpressive 1-1 draw in Puerto Rico, the location of this matchup is key. Indy is near the top of the league in average home points per game (2.40), while Minnesota is near the bottom in average away points (0.8). 

A draw wouldn't surprise me, but the numbers point to Minnesota being unlikely to steal all three points.

Tampa Bay Rowdies +.25 (-110, ): Carolina has fallen off the charts since their 4-0-0 start to the season. The Railhawks have only managed two points in their last eight games (both at Wake Med, to be fair), while Tampa Bay has the second-highest average away point total in the NASL at 1.6.

The model is predicting a draw, but shows a definite edge to the Rowdies. I like the value here.

One non-quantifiable variable to keep an eye on is the arrival of striker Matt Fondy. Unavailable last week, he could restore life to Carolina's attack.

Carolina Railhawks vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies Under 2.5 Goals (-115, ): Recent form and location of the match has the model showing a mean expected goal total between these two sides of only 1.66. 

Tampa has shown their ability to consistently contain their opponents even on the road (average road GA avg of 0.8), while Carolina's attack has been non-existent in recent weeks.

Only way I can imagine this game going over the 2.5 mark would be a 2-1 Tampa victory.

Miami FC +.25 (-105 ★): As good as they've been at home (six wins in six matches), New York has been equally poor on the road (0.6 points per game). Miami's new-look roster looks dramatically better than their early-season counterpart (as they should, given the amount spent), and I would expect them to give the Cosmos all they can handle.


We are tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game. 

Caleb: 138
James: 123
Seth: 114

The ShambleMetrics:

Jacksonville Armada vs. Puerto Rico FC: 
TeamExp Pts (WA)Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
Note: No historical road games for PRFC.

Carolina Railhawks vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies:
TeamExp Pts (WA)Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultDRAW: DIF -0.35UNDER 2.5 - 1.66

Indy Eleven vs. Minnesota United:
TeamExp Pts (WA)Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultIND: DIF 1.79OVER 2.5 - 3.76

Miami FC vs. New York Cosmos:
TeamExp Pts (WA)Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultMIA: DIF 0.84UNDER 2.5 - 2.06

Ottawa Fury vs. Rayo OKC:
TeamExp Pts (WA)Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultDRAW: DIF 0.23UNDER 2.5 - 2.08

FC Edmonton vs. Fort Lauderdale Strikers:
TeamExp Pts (WA)Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultFCE: DIF 0.67OVER 2.5 - 2.58

Note: We're working on getting all of this into a nice infographic for future weeks.

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview ShowDon't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook

James and Seth (@SoccerBits) can also be found on Twitter.

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