Saturday, April 9, 2016

Week 2 Predictions (and Caleb's favorite betting lines)

NASL week two betting lines are finally being released by linemakers across the globe, and as promised on the Week 2 episode of the Bloody Shambles Preview Show, here are our result predictions, as well my personal favorite betting lines of the week. Week 1 Results: 6-2

Favorite Lines:

Indy Eleven to win (+120): If you haven't already, read James's detailed preview of this matchup (a few of my thoughts can be found there as well). The Eleven have more talent on both sides of the ball, the incentive to win (and to do so in style), and the best home crowd in the league. Ottawa will go scoreless again, Indy won't.

Tampa Bay Rowdies Draw No Bet (+105): The oddsmakers have Miami FC as the favorite in their home opener, which honestly surprised me. The Rowdies still boast the deepest midfield in the league, and will make Miami pay if they resort to the hack-a-player tactics which has Allesandro Nesta's side leading the league in fouls (by a fair margin) after one week. If you're feeling confident and don't mind a little more risk, I believe the Rowdies moneyline (+185) has tremendous value in this spot. A hypothetical $50 bet on the moneyline would pay $92.50 plus your original stake.

Minnesota United to win (+125): FC Edmonton goalkeeper Matt Van Oekel put in an NASL Team of the Week performance to salvage his 10-man side a point against Rayo OKC in the opener. It will take an equal performance at home to earn even the same result against Minnesota. If the Loon's defensive deficiencies have you nervous (and perhaps rightfully so), Minnesota Draw No Bet still has decent value at -137.

New York Cosmos / Jacksonville Armada Over 2.5 (-125): Six of Jacksonville's nine preseason games finished with a combined scoreline of three goals or more. The Cosmos proved last week that even if they blank their opponent, the over is still a viable play. We should see at least three goals in this one.

Worth a look:

Rayo OKC / Carolina Railhawks Over 2.5 (TBD): At the time of publishing no major oddsmaker in the world has posted a line for this game -- and I mentioned on the show that this matchup is probably the most difficult of the week to pick a result for. Despite the 0-0 draw against Edmonton, Rayo created several great chances (some of which they fluffed, some of which were superbly saved). The only concern here would be that Carolina's pair of opening week goals might have been more indicative of Minnesota's poor defense than a consistently powerful attack -- but I have faith in Tiyi Shipalane.

New York Cosmos -1 (-130)If you like the Cosmos to win (as I do), this is the play here. There's very little payout value in the moneyline (-220), and the Cosmos showcased an absolutely lethal counter last week against Ottawa. If the Cosmos score in the first half, it's easy to imagine it snowballs to a 2+ goal victory.


We will be tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game. 

James currently leads with 13 points, thanks in part to a perfect prediction of Carolina vs. Minnesota in the opening game of the season.

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview ShowDon't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook

James and Seth (@SoccerBits) can also be found on twitter.

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