Saturday, August 13, 2016

Week 18 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 17 Results: 3-1-0 (55-35-7 OVR / +15.40% ROI / +28.41 units)

Favorite Lines:

Ottawa Fury -.75 (-124, ): There's no shame in losing to league-leading Indy Eleven on the road, especially when Hankinson's men pull their patented late magic. Ottawa is still one of the hotter teams in the league, and 4-1-0 (W-D-L) against the Armada all-time.

The only argument one could make in Jacksonville's favor would be the bump in performance teams will occasionally see after firing their manager. 

I wouldn't expect that here, and Ottawa will handle their business with ease.

Miami FC -1 (-105, ): Another home favorite I absolutely love this week. In the last two weeks Nesta's side has dispatched the Eleven (2-1) and Minnesota United (4-0). Now they come home to play a Strikers team which has lost five of their last six. Miami continues to roll.

Indy Eleven vs. Rayo OKC Under 2.5 Goals (-105, ): There are only two teams in the NASL which have averaged more than one point per game on the road this season: Rayo OKC (1.50) and FC Edmonton (1.13).

Given OKC's incredible ability to perform consistently away from home, expect Indy to have their hands full. A 1-0 Eleven victory or a 1-1 draw would be what I anticipate to see in of this one.

One thing to note: If the forecast is to be believed, this game will very likely be delayed due to thunderstorms in the Indianapolis area close to kickoff. It's impossible to quantify what impact a soaked turf field and a multi-hour delay might have on either team's ability to score -- but the last time the Eleven had a lightning delay at home, they scored three in the first half.

FC Edmonton to win (+110, ): There is simply too much value to overlook for a team that has won eight straight at home, and is facing an opponent with a 57.14% loss percentage on the road in 2016.

Even if the Eddies ultimately draw with a very talented Minnesota side (and one which should have a renewed focus following a 4-0 drubbing at home), the value makes this a solid play.


We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Points per Week:
Brandon: 15.75*
Caleb: 12.29
James: 11.88
Seth: 10.24

Fall Standings:
James: 95
Caleb: 85
Seth: 67
Brandon: 63*

2016 Overall Standings:
Caleb: 209
James: 202
Seth: 174
Brandon: 63*

*Joined Week 14.

The ShambleMetrics:

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview ShowDon't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook

James (@bshambles_JC), Seth (@SoccerBits), and Brandon (@Brew_Wallace) can also be found on Twitter.

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