Saturday, July 30, 2016

Week 16 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 15 Results: 3-2-0 (+4.83 units)
Midweek Results: 0-3-0 (48-32-7 OVR / +12.23% ROI / +19.02 units)

Podcast: Rapid-fire overviews of all six weekend matchups, plus a fantastic conversation with Mitchell (President) and Drew (Vice-President) of the Dade Brigade ahead of Miami FC vs. Indy Eleven. Have a listen!

Favorite Lines:

New York Cosmos -1 (-145, ): There haven't been many lines this season that I've been more confident in than this. The absolute worst-case scenario I can imagine would be a push at a 2-1 Cosmos victory.

The Cosmos have famously yet to drop a single point at home in 2016. While that streak will undoubtedly come to an end eventually, it's hard to imagine Puerto Rico FC being the team to play spoiler. 

That being said: I did underestimated Puerto Rico last week against Rayo, and NYC did have a long midweek road trip, while Whitbread's squad hasn't played since Saturday. Here's to hoping I haven't made the same mistake twice.

Fort Lauderdale Strikers vs Jacksonville Armada Under 2.5 Goals (-145, )Jacksonville has only scored two goals on the road in 2016 -- a number which has hilariously already been surpassed by mid-season arrivals Puerto Rico FC. Meanwhile, Fort Lauderdale has scored the fewest goals at home by any team not owned by Carmelo Anthony.

The ShambleMetrics are showing the expected goal total for this game well below the 2.5 mark (1.81), and it wouldn't surprise me at all if this line moves down a half-goal by kickoff.

Miami FC vs. Indy Eleven Under 2.5 Goals (-125, ★): Indy has struggled to consistently find the net on the road this season, and the state of Florida has been far from kind to the Eleven historically

Six of Indy's seven road games in 2016 have finished under the 2.5 mark: a direct result of a below-league-average 0.57 Road Goals For, but more importantly a league-leading 0.71 Road Goals Against. 

Indy's well-organized defense (with Jon Busch at their backs) has repeatedly shown the ability to lock opponents down in their own stadium. The Eleven have only conceded multiple goals away from home once this season (in the 2-0 loss to Minnesota), and one of those was taken from the penalty spot.

For what it's worth, these two sides did play to a 0-0 draw in the Spring, but it's far be wary of reading too much into that particular result. While Hankinson's well-organized defense is still capable of blanking anyone in the league, Miami's midseason roster overhaul has Nesta's side looking much better in the attacking half than they were at that time.

FC Edmonton to win (+100, ): The Eddies have been incredible at home this season, and Carolina's struggle with offensive consistency has clearly carried through to the fall season. 

The Railhawks also haven't fared well in Canada historically, earning only two points in 10 matches (one point in six matches specifically in Edmonton). They lost to the Fury 2-0 on Wednesday in Ottawa.


We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Fall Standings:
James: 65
Caleb: 61
Seth: 47
Brandon: 25*

Overall Standings:
Caleb: 185
James: 172
Seth: 154
Brandon: 25*

*Joined Week 14.

The ShambleMetrics:

New York Cosmos vs. Puerto Rico FC:
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultNYCNYC: DIF 2NYC: DIF 2.41OVER 2.5 - 3

Fort Lauderdale Strikers vs. Jacksonville Armada:
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultDRAWDRAW: DIF 0.42DRAW: DIF 0.61UNDER 2.5: 1.81

Ottawa Fury FC vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultDRAWDRAW: DIF 0.41DRAW: DIF 0.83UNDER 2.5: 2.26

Miami FC vs. Indy Eleven:
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultDRAWDRAW: DIF -0.07DRAW: DIF -0.22UNDER 2.5 - 1.98

Rayo OKC vs. Minnesota United:
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultOKCOKC: DIF 0.97DRAW: DIF 0.74UNDER 2.5 - 2.21

FC Edmonton vs. Carolina Railhawks:
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultFCEFCE: DIF 1.62FCE: DIF 1.98OVER 2.5 - 2.67

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview ShowDon't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook

James (@bshambles_JC), Seth (@SoccerBits), and Brandon (@Brew_Wallace) can also be found on Twitter.

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