Saturday, May 28, 2016

Week 9 Predictions (and Caleb's favorite betting lines)

A second straight week without the preview show podcast (despite my initial hopes), and even I'm starting to wonder if I can be trusted anymore. 

They did finally release me from the hospital this week (more on that in next week's episode, I promise), but the stars didn't quite align to make recording possible last night or this morning.

Anyway, you know the drill: each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit. 

The incredible hot streak continued last week, and we'll look to continue it for our ninth straight round of NASL action. 

Week 8 Results: 4-2-0 (33-15-3 OVR / +32.08% ROI / +26.79 units)

Favorite Lines:

Fort Lauderdale Strikers +.25 (-110, ): The first thing you'll probably notice is that this game already happened. With this one being a Friday evening match (and knowing I wasn't going to be able to get this post or any sort of recording completed before the game began), I officially locked this pick in on Twitter a few hours before kickoff.

Not a bad start to Week 9.

Indy Eleven to win (+135, ): The injury bug hit Indy hard this week, and they'll be without two of their starting back four (Greg Janicki and Lovel Palmer), as well as two starting-quality midfielders (Brad Ring, Sinisia Ubiparipovic) for the road trip to Jacksonville.

The depth of this squad has been highly touted even before a ball was kicked this season, and this is their chance to prove it. Indy has yet to win in Jacksonville (1D, 1L), but the home side is in absolute disarray. The Armada haven't scored in a month, have yet to keep a clean sheet on the year, and will be missing a few starters of their own due to international duty. I have no reason to doubt Indy keeps their Spring title challenge in full gear, and likely keeps Jacksonville scoreless while doing so. 

If you haven't already, be sure you check out James Cormack's in-depth match preview.

Tampa Bay Rowdies +.5 / Win/Draw Double Chance (-115, ): I've repeated "road value" countless times in the first eight weeks of the season, and you'll notice that the Rowdies are the third road team I love this week.

Despite being robbed a point in New York on an obviously incorrect offside call, the Rowdies are slowly beginning to find their stride. Moreover, Minnesota will be missing a myriad of players due to injury (Ben Speas, Danny Cruz, Lance Laing) or suspension (Justin Davis). 

The chief concerns for the Rowdies are the availability of Tom Heinemann (questionable), and Minnesota's 6-0 aggregate scoreline at home this season (vs. Strikers, Cosmos, Armada) -- but I think there's too much value here. When you have a Win or Draw line with this payout for a squad as talented as Tampa Bay's, it's difficult to ignore.

Miami FC vs. FC Edmonton Under 2.5 (-125, ): Colin Miller's side not only continues to win, but continues to consistently keep the scorelines low. They have the lowest combined goal average in the league (1.5 total goals per game played), with seven of their eight games this season finishing under the 2.5 mark.

Despite defensive struggles earlier in the season, Miami has spent over $1 million in combined transfer fees on two fantastic defensive midfielders in recent weeks (I strongly believe Michael Lahoud was another tremendous addition, despite the cost), while not having scored since April 22nd. 


We are tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game. 

James: 68 points
Seth: 78 points
Caleb: 92 points

Proof of Ottawa / Fort Lauderdale selections.

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview ShowDon't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook

James and Seth (@SoccerBits) can also be found on Twitter.

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