Saturday, October 29, 2016

Regular Season Finale: Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 28 Results: 2-1-0 (68-52-8 OVR / +5.17% ROI / +14.14 units)

Favorite Lines:

New York Cosmos Draw No Bet (+100, ): Despite early-season road struggles, the Cosmos have only lost one match away from home since July (a 3-0 drubbing at the hands of the Eleven). Minnesota, meanwhile, have only won two of their last 12 overall.

It's worth keeping an eye on the squad Gio Savarese decides to roll with, but meaningless match or not, it's hard not to love the value in the Cosmos here.

Rayo OKC vs Indy Eleven Under 2.5 Goals (-115, ): It's important to preface this pick with the recognition that the importance of this game will entirely hinge on the result of Minnesota/New York on Saturday. If Minnesota fails to defeat the Cosmos, Rayo automatically earns the fourth playoff spot and will face New York in the semifinals. If Minnesota were to win, Rayo would still only need a draw to secure the fourth spot.

With that in mind, Rayo is riding a nine game unbeaten streak, with seven of those matches finishing under the 2.5 mark. Expect both teams to go into this game with the primary focus of staying healthy, keeping a clean sheet, and preparing for November 5th.


We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Spring Standings:
Caleb: 124
James: 107
Seth: 107

Fall Standings:
James: 274
Caleb: 259
Brandon: 217*
Seth: 207

2016 Overall Standings:
Caleb: 383
James: 381
Seth: 314
Brandon: 217*

Points per Week:
Brandon: 14.47*
Caleb: 13.68
James: 13.61
Seth: 11.21
*Joined Week 14.

The ShambleMetrics:

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview ShowDon't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook

James (@bshambles_JC), Seth (@SoccerBits), and Brandon (@Brew_Wallace) can also be found on Twitter.

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