Saturday, October 22, 2016

Week 28 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 27 Results: 2-0-0 (64-51-8 OVR / +3.37% ROI / +8.88 units)

Favorite Lines:

Rayo OKC Draw No Bet (+110, ): No team in the NASL is better away from home than Rayo OKC, as they lead the league in both road winning percentage (33%), and average points per game (1.33). This Draw No Bet is too generous for a team unbeaten in eight.

Indy Eleven Draw/Win HT/FT Result (+265, ): Here's some math for you: In 2016, Indy Eleven has a 46.67% first half draw percentage at home, with a full time winning percentage of 80%. Moreover, in the Fall, Indy has a direct 80% winning percentage in home matches which are tied at halftime.

If we ignore every other potential variable (hundreds of which the ShambleMetrics model actually does take into account), the likelihood of both events occurring (0.4667 * 0.8) is 37.34%. 

For comparison, the implied probability of a line at +265 odds is 27.40%. Value.

FC Edmonton vs. Jacksonville Armada Under 2.5 Goals (TBD, ):This line has not been released at the time of publishing, but I would expect it to fall somewhere in the -130 to -145 range. Regardless, FC Edmonton and Unders have been utterly synonymous in 2016, and I see no reason to jump off the bandwagon at this point.


We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Spring Standings:
James: 124
Caleb: 107
Seth: 107

Fall Standings:
James: 255
Caleb: 239
Brandon: 202*
Seth: 195

2016 Overall Standings:
Caleb: 363
James: 362
Seth: 302
Brandon: 202*

Points per Week:
Brandon: 14.43*
Caleb: 13.44
James: 13.41
Seth: 11.19
*Joined Week 14.

The ShambleMetrics:


Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview ShowDon't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook

James (@bshambles_JC), Seth (@SoccerBits), and Brandon (@Brew_Wallace) can also be found on Twitter.

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