Week 27 Results: 2-0-0 (64-51-8 OVR / +3.37% ROI / +8.88 units)
Rayo OKC Draw No Bet (+110, ★★★★): No team in the NASL is better away from home than Rayo OKC, as they lead the league in both road winning percentage (33%), and average points per game (1.33). This Draw No Bet is too generous for a team unbeaten in eight.
Indy Eleven Draw/Win HT/FT Result (+265, ★★): Here's some math for you: In 2016, Indy Eleven has a 46.67% first half draw percentage at home, with a full time winning percentage of 80%. Moreover, in the Fall, Indy has a direct 80% winning percentage in home matches which are tied at halftime.
If we ignore every other potential variable (hundreds of which the ShambleMetrics model actually does take into account), the likelihood of both events occurring (0.4667 * 0.8) is 37.34%.
For comparison, the implied probability of a line at +265 odds is 27.40%. Value.
FC Edmonton vs. Jacksonville Armada Under 2.5 Goals (TBD, ★★★★):This line has not been released at the time of publishing, but I would expect it to fall somewhere in the -130 to -145 range. Regardless, FC Edmonton and Unders have been utterly synonymous in 2016, and I see no reason to jump off the bandwagon at this point.
Predictions:We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.
2016 Overall Standings:
Points per Week:
*Joined Week 14.
Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.
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