Saturday, April 30, 2016

Week 5 Predictions (and Caleb's favorite betting lines)

We're at the halfway point in the 2016 NASL Spring Season, and have ended each of the first four weeks in a net positive position. Here's to hoping that trend continues.

Be sure to check out this week's preview podcast for a more detailed look at each game:

I will be assigning each line with a one (★), two (★★), or three star (★★★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star (★) will correspond to one unit.

Week 4 Results: 2-1-1 (19-8-2 OVR / +23.4% ROI)

Favorite Lines:

Tampa Bay Rowdies Draw No Bet (+110, ★★): Both the Rowdies and Strikers have underperformed in the early stages, but the Rowdies have too much talent to lose to a Strikers side in complete disarray. Tampa's midfield will control this game, and the Strikers slide continues. 

I also like the First Half Total at Under 0.5 (+175, ★) in this one. In seven combined games, neither side has scored a goal before the 65th minute. I'm surprised there's this much value in expecting a scoreless first half, and would expect this line to probably dip a bit before kickoff.

Indy Eleven Double Chance / +.5 (-150, ★): I mentioned both in the pod and in James's in-depth look at this game that OKC's 4-3-3 can be a matchup nightmare for Indy in the wider areas. While I don't think Indy's vaunted defense keeps a clean sheet on the road, Rayo's defense has conceded five goals in their last two games. This is why I also like Both Teams to Score (-155, ), and why the Eleven won't lose this game. Even with homer bias accounted for, I'm confident enough in the Eleven at least earning a point to give this line a fourth star.

Carolina Railhawks Double Chance / +.5 (-112, ★): For a team that's won their first four games of the season rather convincingly (and against some of better teams in the league), the Railhawks continue to not get no respect from linemakers. The Cosmos have too much money and talent to fall too far down the table, but the Railhawks are more than capable of going into the lovely Shuart Stadium and leaving with a point. 

Play the form, ride the hot hand who has proven their quality, and don't fall victim to giving a big name more credit than they deserve.


We will be tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game. 

James: 45 points
Seth: 43 points
Caleb: 38 points

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview ShowDon't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook

James and Seth (@SoccerBits) can also be found on Twitter.

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