Saturday, July 23, 2016

Week 15 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 14 Results: 1-2-0 (45-27-7 OVR / +14.57% ROI / +20.18 units)

Favorite Lines:

Indy Eleven to win (+110, ): Relatively poor road performances finally caught up to the Spring Champs last weekend. A loss at some point was inevitable though, and there's little shame in losing to one of the most talented teams in the league in their own stadium.

There are two things we've learned about this squad in 2016: First, they're resilient. This iteration of the Indy Eleven have the Chumbawamba-like ability to spring to their feet after taking a blow on the chin. They're going to be angry. They're going to be motivated.

The second thing we know about Tim Hankinson's side is that they're tremendous at home. In seven games at The Mike, they've earned five wins and two draws, with a +10 goal differential. 

That being said, it's important to note here that FC Edmonton is near the top of the combined table for a reason. They're a tough squad which will physically beat you down given the opportunity. They're also one of two teams to leave Indy with a point in 2016.

Why the edge to Indy? Edmonton will be missing both of their starting central defenders. Look for Zayed and Braun to have the Eddie's back line on their heels early and often. 

Jacksonville Armada vs. Ottawa Fury Under 2.5 Goals (-150, ): These are the two lowest-scoring teams in the league, both averaging well below one goal per game (0.57 for Jacksonville, 0.77 for the Fury). Consistent defensive errors (which both teams are admittedly prone to) would be the only way this one turns into a goalfest.

It's still relatively early, but Ottawa is also on pace to have one of the worst seasons on the road in modern NASL history (one point from seven matches). Given this, I also like Jacksonville to win (+110, ★).

Rayo OKC Draw No Bet (-125, ★): Rayo has quietly been the best road team in the NASL in 2016, earning 11 points in six games. Their 1.83 average road points per game metric is far and away the best in the league, surpassing the second-best Rowdies by a full half-point (1.33). 

The argument can certainly be made that Puerto Rico should've defeated this side in OKC just over a week ago, but I don't think Carmelo's club is ready for their first win just yet.

Minnesota United -1 (+105, ★): The Striker's late-Spring red-hot form has completely evaporated, while Minnesota continues to improve with each passing week. As long as Ndjock can avoid throwing the ball into his own net, United shouldn't have any trouble dispatching Fort Lauderdale my multiple goals at NSC Stadium.


We are tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Week 14 Results:
James: 15
Caleb: 13
Brandon: 12
Seth: 2

Overall Standings:
Caleb: 170
James: 159
Seth: 131
Brandon: 12*

*Joined Week 14.
Proof of Carolina/Miami Selections & Metrics.

The ShambleMetrics:

Carolina Railhawks vs. Miami FC:
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultCARCAR: DIF 1.01CAR: DIF 1.21OVER 2.5 - 2.56

Jacksonville Armada vs. Ottawa Fury:
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultDRAWJAX: DIF 1.25JAX: DIF 1.04UNDER 2.5: 2.15

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs. New York Cosmos:
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultTBRTBR: DIF 0.72TBR: DIF 1.17OVER 2.5 - 2.88

Puerto Rico FC vs. Rayo OKC:
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultDRAWOKC: DIF -0.77DRAW: DIF -0.59UNDER 2.5 - 2.03

Indy Eleven vs. FC Edmonton:
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultINDIND: DIF 1.29IND: DIF 1.64UNDER 2.5 - 2.1

Minnesota United vs. Fort Lauderdale Strikers:
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)Exp GF (WA)Exp GA (WA)
ResultMNUMNU: DIF 1.13MNU: DIF 2.05OVER 2.5 - 2.79

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview ShowDon't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook

James (@bshambles_JC), Seth (@SoccerBits), and Brandon (@Brew_Wallace) can also be found on Twitter.

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