Saturday, August 20, 2016

Week 19 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 18 Results: 1-3-0 (56-38-7 OVR / +11.63% ROI / +22.61 units)

Favorite Lines:

Fort Lauderdale Strikers vs. Ottawa Fury Under 2 (-105, ): Excluding Puerto Rico, these two teams have the lowest Home Goals For and Away Goals For averages in the league, respectively. The ShambleMetrics NASL prediction model is showing an expected combined goal total in this match of 1.75.

Puerto Rico FC vs. New York Cosmos Under 3 (-135, ): Puerto Rico has only played three games to date in Juan Ramón Loubriel Stadium, so the sample size is small -- but we've seen opposing teams struggle to break down the PRFC defense. At 2.5, I'd be much more hesitant to put this on here -- but a solid three is giving too much credit to a Cosmos side which is consistently underwhelming on the road.

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs. FC Edmonton First Half Draw (-110, ): A big part of Edmonton's success in climbing the table this season has been a result of keeping games close early, and closing out their opponents in the second half. Don't expect Colin Miller to approach this match any differently.


We're tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game.

Points per Week:
Brandon: 16.00*
Caleb: 12.50
James: 11.67
Seth: 10.06

Fall Standings:
James: 103
Caleb: 101
Brandon: 80*
Seth: 74

2016 Overall Standings:
Caleb: 225
James: 210
Seth: 181
Brandon: 80*

*Joined Week 14.

The ShambleMetrics:

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview ShowDon't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook

James (@bshambles_JC), Seth (@SoccerBits), and Brandon (@Brew_Wallace) can also be found on Twitter.

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