Week 14 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

ShambleMetrics: Introducing Bloody Shambles' first statistical NASL prediction model. The model is based on various carefully weighted key metrics I used in the Spring Season with much success. 

We didn't get a chance to get any official betting picks up for the Wednesday matchups, but the ShambleMetrics were a perfect 3 for 3 in predicting the game result.

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 13 Results: 1-4-0 (44-25-7 OVR / +17.13% ROI / +22.70 units)

Favorite Lines:

Fort Lauderdale Strikers vs. Carolina Railhawks Over 2.5 Goals (-115, ★★): Carolina's last three league games have resulted in a combined 16 total goals. Fort Lauderdale may also look to rest some players coming off of midweek action against Indy Eleven, and looking forward to their midweek US Open Cup quarterfinals showdown with Chicago Fire. Keep an eye on this, as it may lead to some value in the away side.

Indy Eleven +.5 (-125, ★★): Despite a three-hour rain delay, Indy's midweek match went as smoothly as anyone could have hoped for. Three early goals allowed the team to relax in the second half and stay fairly fresh for this one.

Indy's performances on the road have been far from convincing at times, but they're still undefeated on the season. Arguably their toughest test on the season to date, but I like their chances to at least secure a point. 

If you haven't already, be sure to check out James's in-depth look at this matchup.

FC Edmonton to win (-135, ★★): Statistically the second-best home team in the league this season facing off against the worst road team. Ottawa has one road point in 2016 (against Indy, interestingly enough), and a goal differential of -8 away from home. Edmonton continues to exceed expectations on the season and earns all three points in this one.

Predictions:

We are tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game. 

Caleb: 157
James: 144
Seth: 129

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The ShambleMetrics:

Fort Lauderdale Strikers vs. Carolina Railhawks: 

	Team	Exp Win %	Exp Pts (WA)	Exp GD (WA)	Mean Exp Goals (WA)
Home	FTL	43.40%	1.54	0.09	1.90
Away	CAR	14.30%	0.59	-1.58	1.07
Differential		42.29%	0.95	1.67	0.84
Result		FTL	FTL: DIF 0.95	FTL: DIF 1.67	OVER 2.5 - 2.97

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs. Puerto Rico FC

	Team	Exp Win %	Exp Pts (WA)	Exp GD (WA)	Mean Exp Goals (WA)
Home	TBR	40.98%	1.63	0.13	1.59
Away	PRFC	13.33%	0.55	-0.45	1.30
Differential		45.68%	1.08	0.58	0.29
Result		DRAW	TBR: DIF 1.08	DRAW: DIF 0.58	OVER 2.5 - 2.89

Minnesota United vs. Indy Eleven

	Team	Exp Win %	Exp Pts (WA)	Exp GD (WA)	Mean Exp Goals (WA)
Home	MIA	13.98%	1.06	-0.35	1.14
Away	JAX	15.15%	0.63	-0.88	0.88
Differential		70.87%	0.43	0.53	0.26
Result		DRAW	DRAW: DIF 0.43	DRAW: DIF 0.53	UNDER 2.5: 2.02

Miami FC vs. Jacksonville Armada

	Team	Exp Win %	Exp Pts (WA)	Exp GD (WA)	Mean Exp Goals (WA)
Home	MNU	37.21%	1.88	1.05	1.44
Away	IND	15.37%	1.46	0.44	1.13
Differential		47.42%	0.42	0.61	0.30
Result		DRAW	DRAW: DIF 0.42	DRAW: DIF 0.61	OVER 2.5 - 2.57

Rayo OKC vs. New York Cosmos

	Team	Exp Win %	Exp Pts (WA)	Exp GD (WA)	Mean Exp Goals (WA)
Home	OKC	7.55%	1.12	-0.10	1.33
Away	NYC	29.67%	1.63	0.30	1.53
Differential		62.79%	-0.50	-0.40	-0.20
Result		DRAW	NYC: DIF -0.5	DRAW: DIF -0.4	OVER 2.5 - 2.86

FC Edmonton vs. Ottawa Fury

	Team	Exp Win %	Exp Pts (WA)	Exp GD (WA)	Mean Exp Goals (WA)
Home	FCE	65.98%	2.53	0.70	1.49
Away	OTT	6.26%	0.26	-0.97	0.65
Differential		27.75%	2.27	1.67	0.84
Result		FCE	FCE: DIF 2.27	FCE: DIF 1.67	UNDER 2.5 - 2.14

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Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

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James and Seth (@SoccerBits) can also be found on Twitter.