Saturday, July 16, 2016

Week 14 Predictions, ShambleMetrics, and Caleb's favorite betting lines

ShambleMetrics: Introducing Bloody Shambles' first statistical NASL prediction model. The model is based on various carefully weighted key metrics I used in the Spring Season with much success. 

We didn't get a chance to get any official betting picks up for the Wednesday matchups, but the ShambleMetrics were a perfect 3 for 3 in predicting the game result.

Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit.

Week 13 Results: 1-4-0 (44-25-7 OVR / +17.13% ROI / +22.70 units)

Favorite Lines:

Fort Lauderdale Strikers vs. Carolina Railhawks Over 2.5 Goals (-115, )Carolina's last three league games have resulted in a combined 16 total goals. Fort Lauderdale may also look to rest some players coming off of midweek action against Indy Eleven, and looking forward to their midweek US Open Cup quarterfinals showdown with Chicago Fire. Keep an eye on this, as it may lead to some value in the away side.

Indy Eleven +.5 (-125, ): Despite a three-hour rain delay, Indy's midweek match went as smoothly as anyone could have hoped for. Three early goals allowed the team to relax in the second half and stay fairly fresh for this one.

Indy's performances on the road have been far from convincing at times, but they're still undefeated on the season. Arguably their toughest test on the season to date, but I like their chances to at least secure a point. 

If you haven't already, be sure to check out James's in-depth look at this matchup.

FC Edmonton to win (-135, ★): Statistically the second-best home team in the league this season facing off against the worst road team. Ottawa has one road point in 2016 (against Indy, interestingly enough), and a goal differential of -8 away from home. Edmonton continues to exceed expectations on the season and earns all three points in this one.


We are tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game. 

Caleb: 157
James: 144
Seth: 129

The ShambleMetrics:

Fort Lauderdale Strikers vs. Carolina Railhawks: 
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)
ResultFTLFTL: DIF 0.95FTL: DIF 1.67OVER 2.5 - 2.97

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs. Puerto Rico FC

TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)
ResultDRAWTBR: DIF 1.08DRAW: DIF 0.58OVER 2.5 - 2.89

Minnesota United vs. Indy Eleven
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)
ResultDRAWDRAW: DIF 0.43DRAW: DIF 0.53UNDER 2.5: 2.02

Miami FC vs. Jacksonville Armada
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)
ResultDRAWDRAW: DIF 0.42DRAW: DIF 0.61OVER 2.5 - 2.57

Rayo OKC vs. New York Cosmos
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)
ResultDRAWNYC: DIF -0.5DRAW: DIF -0.4OVER 2.5 - 2.86

FC Edmonton vs. Ottawa Fury
TeamExp Win %Exp Pts (WA)Exp GD (WA)Mean Exp Goals (WA)
ResultFCEFCE: DIF 2.27FCE: DIF 1.67UNDER 2.5 - 2.14

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview ShowDon't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook

James and Seth (@SoccerBits) can also be found on Twitter.

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