Saturday, June 11, 2016

Week 11 Predictions (and Caleb's favorite betting lines)

The Streak Continues: While last week was statistically our worst to date, the weekly best bets still ended in a net positive position and netted a measly 0.20 units. Just like the Eleven, we go into the final week with an opportunity to finish the 2016 Spring Season undefeated. And we didn't even have a bye week.

The Format: Each betting line is assigned a star (★) rating. For the purposes of ROI calculation, each star corresponds to a single unit. 

Week 9 Results: 2-1-1 (OVR: 39-17-4 / +29.99% ROI / +30.14 units)

Favorite Lines:

Tampa Bay Rowdies -.25 (-120, ): The Rowdies have found their form and will continue to roll. The midfield which most of us expected to be one of the best in the league going into the season is finally living up to the expectations -- and that Joe Cole guy? He's pretty good.

To their credit, Jacksonville is undefeated in their last three games (all competitions) -- but they still can't find the net consistently enough to be a real threat. If you can stomach a little more risk (and aren't interested in making a draw a half-push) Tampa to win straight up is currently +105 -- there's value there as well.

Indy Eleven vs. Carolina Railhawks Over 2.5 (+100, ): We all know what Indy needs to accomplish in order to win the Spring title: win by at least three, while scoring four or more goals. Even if they fail to meet that lofty mark, I think we'll see the home side pushing hard enough (particularly in the second half), to allow the Over to hit -- especially at even payout odds. 

Tim Hankinson is a bit of a pragmatist. His primary focus for this game will be to earn the three points necessary for Indy start the Fall season tied atop the league standings. The game will probably start slower than most Indy fans would prefer, and it wouldn't surprise me if the scoreline at half is 1-0 or 0-0.

If the title is still within reach in the 46th minute, expect Hankinson to transition to a three-man back line, pushing Vukovic into the midfield. As proven against Minnesota, New York, and even Louisville, this squad is more than capable of scoring multiple second-half goals.

In addition to the over, I also like the value in Indy to win (+105,  ★). The Railhawks have been a relative disaster in league play since beating the Rowdies in Tampa on April 23rd (earning only two points from the following five games), and I don't see any reason to believe that changes tonight.

Be sure to check out our own James Cormack's in-depth match preview if you haven't already.

Miami FC +1 (-130, ): Minnesota has been in a complete tailspin since losing to Indy. After beating Jacksonville 2-0 on May 14th, the Loons have lost their last three league games by a combined scoreline of 7-2.

Miami is slowly starting to put in the performances which were expected going into the season. They're undefeated in their last three league games (1W, 2D), and most importantly have yet to concede a league goal since splashing cash for two of the better defensive midfielders in the league.

I have a very hard time believing Minnesota manages a multi-goal victory given their current form and this opponent.

Fort Lauderdale Strikers Draw No Bet (+110, ): Typically I wouldn't recommend betting against Edmonton in this spot (at home, only one loss in their last six games, at home, coming off a bye), but Strikers are the hottest team in the NASL. They were my preseason favorite for the Spring title, and somehow after starting with two points in their first four games (and looking every bit as threatening as a wet noodle), they have a theoretical shot (albeit entirely unrealistic) at making me look like a genius.

The one concern: Fort Lauderdale has a midweek US Open Cup game against DC United of MLS. If the lineup Zanardi puts out on Sunday makes it appear as if he's resting a good portion of his starters for the Cup, be wary of this play.

If the lineup is strong, ride the team that has five wins and one draw in their last six matches (all competitions).


We are tracking these predictions in a points-based system throughout the season: 3 points for correct game result, 1 point for each correct score (by team), and 1 additional point for a perfect game. 

James: 95 points
Seth: 100 points
Caleb: 111 points

Have any questions about any of the numbers or terminology found in this post? Reach out to @CalebRamp on Twitter.

Remember: All gambling and betting line discussion is for entertainment purposes only. If you do choose to gamble, be sure to do so legally and responsibly.

Join Caleb Ramp each week during the season for the Bloody Shambles Preview ShowDon't forget to follow Bloody Shambles on Twitter, and like us on Facebook

James and Seth (@SoccerBits) can also be found on Twitter.

No comments:

Post a Comment